Colorado’s late burst on the recruiting trail has given the Buffaloes a fresh jolt of energy, but the numbers heading into Nov. 13 paint a much tougher picture. A visit from No. 14 Houston at Folsom Field brings a steep test for a Colorado team still trying to claw back into bowl position.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is not kind to the Buffaloes. Colorado is last among Big 12 teams in the metric, carrying a -1.8 FPI that makes it the only conference program with a negative rating. The Buffaloes also sit 74th nationally, the lowest spot of any Big 12 team in the rankings.
The outlook for the postseason is equally thin. ESPN gives Colorado just a 2.0 percent chance to win out, and the same number for reaching six wins. That leaves the Buffaloes at 3-6 with no margin for error if they want to stay alive for bowl eligibility.
Colorado is not mathematically done, and some players - including wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. - are still talking like a bowl trip is in play. But the path is simple and brutal: the Buffaloes have to win their next three, starting with the toughest game left on the schedule.
Houston arrives with a very different profile under Willie Fritz. The Cougars own the Big 12’s fifth-best RPI at 13.9 and rank 21st in ESPN’s RPI. Their odds of winning the rest of their schedule sit at 25.9 percent, a number that reflects how much better positioned they are right now.
The bigger picture around Houston is even more ambitious. ESPN gives the Cougars a 21.6 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, the fourth-best mark in the Big 12. If Houston gets there, it would be the program’s first shot at competing for the national title, including the years before the move into the Big 12 in the 2023 realignment cycle.
That path is still crowded. No.
2 Utah remains unbeaten and looks like a near-lock for the CFP if it keeps winning. BYU, ranked No. 10, is also in strong shape, while reigning Big 12 champion Texas Tech remains in the mix for both the conference title and a return to the playoff.
For Colorado, an upset would mean more than just another win. It would give Sanders his second victory over a top-25 opponent in the last two seasons.
The Buffaloes beat a No. 22 Iowa State team at the same venue one year ago, a result that stood as their best win in a 3-9 season.
Still, Houston brings a different kind of challenge. Conner Weigman, the former five-star quarterback, leads the Cougars, and their defensive front has the kind of punch that can make life miserable for Isaac Wilson and the Colorado offense.
The Buffaloes have some momentum off the field. The question now is whether that energy can show up where it matters most.
In Other News...
Houstons Depth Just Sent Another Message In A One-Sided Win
Houstons early-season depth kept making its case in a lopsided home win over Jacksonville State, another reminder that the No. 8 Cougars are not leaning on just one or two scorers to get through November. Dedan Thomas Jr. led the way with 17 points and seven assists, Mercy Miller added 15 points, and Houston kept the pressure on with a balanced offensive showing in a 92-46 rout that moved the team to 3-0.
The most encouraging part for Houston may have been how many different pieces contributed once the game opened up. Chendall Weaver chipped in 10 points off the bench, and the Cougars were sharp at the line, finishing 27 of 32 on free throws. For a team trying to build rhythm while protecting its ranking, it was the kind of one-sided result that can still tell a useful story about how deep this roster can be. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Still Has Two Big Injury Questions Before Houston
Colorados Week 11 injury report does at least offer a little stability heading into its matchup with Houston, with no new players added to the unavailable list. The Buffaloes still have several important names to monitor, though, and the report leaves the door open on a few situations that could shape how they approach the game plan.
Taufatofuas status is one of the clearer developments, as he moved from doubtful to questionable, while Martinez and Arnold remain in that same uncertain category. Arnolds availability carries an extra layer of importance on special teams, since Colorado would turn to Daniel Gerlach for place-kicking duties if he cannot go. [Read more 🡒]
Houston Heads To Boulder With Colorado Facing One Huge Problem
Colorado is getting ready to host No. 14 Houston in a Big 12 matchup, and the Buffaloes are already dealing with a special teams issue that could matter in a close game. Kicker Elliott Arnold is listed as questionable after getting hurt on a field-goal attempt against Arizona State, leaving Colorado with uncertainty in a spot where every point can loom large.
The Buffaloes also enter with offensive questions of their own, which puts more pressure on quarterback Isaac Wilson and wide receiver Joseph Williams to help keep pace. Houstons defense has been tougher against the run than the pass, so Colorados ability to attack through the air could shape how competitive this one feels once the Cougars settle in. [Read more 🡒]