Houston’s margin for error is gone after Week 9, and that makes Saturday’s home matchup with Cincinnati feel like a must-hold serve. The Cougars have already taken two losses this season, and another setback would leave them with almost no room left if they’re still chasing the Big 12 Championship or the College Football Playoff.
Cincinnati comes in with its own uneven stretch, sitting at 1-3 over its last four games. But that lone win is the kind that gets attention: a victory over Texas Tech, the Big 12 favorite before the Bearcats knocked them off.
If Cincinnati is going to pull another upset, Cole Tabb may have to carry the load again. He’s been the engine of the offense all season, averaging 9.5 yards per carry and scoring 13 total touchdowns.
Two weeks ago against Texas Tech, he ripped off 173 rushing yards and found the end zone twice. Another outing like that could be the difference again.
The better play here looks like the OVER rather than picking a side. Both defenses have had real issues at different points this season.
Cincinnati is 102nd in opponent EPA per play and 120th in defense success rate, while Houston sits 119th and 108th in those same categories. On the other side, both offenses have been efficient enough to rank inside the top 30 in EPA per play.
So the setup points to points in a Big 12 game that should have plenty of scoring chances on both sides.
In Other News...
Houston Offense Suddenly Has Real Pressure In A Crucial Big 12 Test
Houston heads into its first game of November with a little more pressure on the offense than it may have expected a few weeks ago. The Cougars are set to host Cincinnati in a Big 12 matchup that feels important for more than just the standings, especially with the conference quarterback picture shifting again after a busy Week 9. Recent play at the position has become a major storyline around the league, and Houston is now being measured against a group of teams with more established answers under center.
Cincinnati brings its own questions, but the Bearcats also arrive after a game in which their defense was pushed hard by Utah. For Houston, that means the spotlight is squarely on how well the Cougars can handle a defense that has already shown vulnerability, while also keeping pace in a league where quarterback performance can change a teams trajectory in a hurry. The matchup adds another layer to a week that already carries real weight for the Cougars, and it should say a lot about where this offense stands as the calendar turns. [Read more 🡒]
Houstons Turnaround Now Hinges On One Big Defensive Question
Houstons offense has taken a real step forward through eight games, and a big part of that is the work up front. The line has gone from a question mark to a strength, helping the Cougars play with more efficiency and giving the rest of the offense a steadier foundation than it had a year ago.
The defense, though, is where the seasons next turn may be decided. Houston has not generated the kind of quarterback pressure it did in past years, even if the secondary has done its part with pass breakups, and the group is still waiting on help from two starters who could change the look of the unit. If those pieces settle back in quickly, the Cougars push for more wins gets a lot more realistic. [Read more 🡒]