The Big 12 is kicking off Week 1, and with it comes the long climb toward Arlington, Texas, in December, where the conference title game will decide who reaches the College Football Playoff. Every team in the league has something to chase. A few, though, are carrying expectations so heavy that even a good season might not be enough.
Texas Tech sits near the top of that conversation for one simple reason: the bar is already set extremely high. Plenty of outsiders are looking at the Red Raiders and seeing an 11-1 run and a 12-1 finish after the league title game.
Inside the program, the goal is even bigger - win the Big 12 and get back to the CFP. When that’s the standard, one badly timed loss can change everything.
With a target on its back, Texas Tech doesn’t need a collapse to come up short.
BYU is in a similar spot. The Cougars are being treated like a real Big 12 championship and CFP threat, and the pieces are there to justify it.
LJ Martin is the best returning running back in the conference, Bear Bachmeier is expected to take a step forward at quarterback, and the roster has enough core talent to make a push. But the ceiling is so high that anything less than a title chase will feel like a disappointment.
BYU is targeting a title. Anything less will be disappointing.
Houston also has the kind of profile that can go either way. This is the best the Cougars have been positioned to win a Big 12 championship, and maybe the best shot they’ve had in a long time to make some national noise.
The quarterback is experienced, and the defense is one of the best in the conference. Still, the schedule is not forgiving.
If Houston drops two or three league games, it could end up well short of the expectation that it will contend for a berth in the Big 12 Championship game.
TCU belongs in this group too, even after winning nine games last year. That part matters, because it’s easy to forget how solid that season was.
The Horned Frogs also changed quarterbacks after Josh Hoover’s transfer to Indiana, but there’s still enough talent on hand to matter in the league race. The concern is the familiar one: TCU tends to shine when the spotlight isn’t brightest.
This year, people expect more. The Ireland game is another worry, especially now that they’ve lost it.
A loss there set back Kansas State’s season a year ago, in my opinion.
Utah rounds out the list, and the concern here is less about raw talent than about the shape of the season ahead. Kyle Whittingham’s final year was a strong one, even if he didn’t know it at the time, and the Utes won 10 games.
But Morgan Scalley has never been a head coach, and the roster is light on returning starters - only five in all. On offense, the only returning starters are Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker.
That kind of turnover makes consistency hard to find, and it’s especially tough for a first-time head coach. There are a lot of trap games here, and if Scalley hits the usual growing pains early, Utah could wind up below the level its 2026 expectations demand.
In Other News...
Houston Fans Are Still Waiting On A Key Transfer Safety Decision
Houstons offseason roster movement keeps getting a little more interesting, and one of the newest additions is already on campus but not yet cleared to fully settle in. Former Arizona State safety Myles Rowser has reportedly transferred to the Cougars and is practicing with the team, giving Willie Fritz another defensive piece to evaluate as the staff continues sorting through its summer personnel picture.
The wait now centers on the paperwork and approvals that will determine whether Rowser can officially join the mix, with Fritz saying the process is complex and the staff is aiming to have those eligibility decisions wrapped up by the end of the week. It is the kind of late-summer administrative delay that can matter a lot to a team trying to get its depth chart in place, especially with Houston also welcoming back wide receiver Stephon Johnson for an extra year under the latest eligibility rules tied to the high school class of 2022. [Read more 🡒]
Houston Must Prove Its Week 1 Edge Against Oregon State
Houston will open its 2026 season against Oregon State on Sept. 5 at TDECU Stadium, and the matchup already carries a little more weight than a typical nonconference opener. It will be the second straight year the Cougars and Beavers have met, and the fifth time overall, giving the game a familiar edge even before either side takes the field. For Houston, it is the kind of early test that can say plenty about where the program stands, especially with offensive pieces in place and a defense that will need to hold up against a team that has linebacker talent of its own.
One of the more interesting layers is how several familiar names on both sidelines shape the night, including senior transfer Trent Walker facing his former team in his first game as a Cougar. Houston will also be leaning on a secondary that should set the tone, with Kentrell Webb, Jordan Allen, Will James and Jalen Mayo among the key pieces tasked with handling Oregon State's receivers. If the Cougars are going to establish an early edge in September, this is the kind of matchup that will help show whether they are ready to do it. [Read more 🡒]