Yordan Alvarez has built the kind of MVP resume that usually makes the rest of the league tip its cap and move on. He’s been at or near the top of the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, runs and RBI for most of the season. On the surface, that looks like a slam dunk.
But the award conversation is not that simple.
Once pitchers are taken out of the mix, the AL MVP race narrows to something close to a two-man fight, and Bobby Witt Jr. is right there with Alvarez. The surprising part is that the numbers used most often to judge total value don’t put Alvarez nearly as far ahead as the batting line might suggest. Both Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com had Witt at 6.5 wins coming into play on Tuesday, while Alvarez sat at 6.0.
That gap starts to make more sense when you break WAR down into its pieces. Bill James’ runs created concept tries to bundle a player’s offensive output into one number, and Baseball-Reference’s version adds positional adjustment through RPos.
When you fold in Rfield, Rbaser and offensive production, the picture shifts. The table in this case tells the story: Witt checked in with 86 RC, 8 Rfield, 9 Rbaser, 7 RPos and a total of 110.
Alvarez posted 139 RC, -5 Rfield, -3 Rbaser, -11 RPos and a total of 120.
That doesn’t erase Alvarez’s edge with the bat. It does show why the WAR conversation is not as lopsided as it first appears.
Witt’s value comes from the other side of the game. He’s a good defensive shortstop, he runs the bases well, and shortstop carries far more difficulty than designated hitter.
Alvarez, meanwhile, has spent enough time in left field to show up in the negative there, and the WAR formulas don’t go easy on designated hitters. Even if a full-time DH would technically have 0 Rfield, the models still ding players in that role.
There’s also the human side of the vote. The BBWAA still makes the postseason award decisions, but the voting pool has changed.
The old-school image of the cigar-smoking voter with the pot belly is giving way to people who understand the numbers better. That matters, because “value” is where the argument gets messy.
The biggest fight around MVP has always been about what the word actually means. Is it simply the best player in the league?
Or is it the player who mattered most to his team’s success? Branch Rickey once told Ralph Kiner that he could finish last with him or without him, a reminder that great individual talent and team value are not always the same thing.
By that definition, the Royals’ season becomes part of the case for Witt, even if the Astros have been in the middle of a pennant race with Alvarez carrying a huge load. Some people will lean on the math and say the player with the most WAR should win. Others will point out that Kansas City has not played a meaningful game since June, while Houston is still fighting for the AL West.
That’s why this isn’t as clean as it first looks. A Cal Raleigh argument existed last season even with Aaron Judge leading the league in WAR, and this year there’s room to argue that Witt belongs in the conversation with Alvarez.
If the Astros finish the job and win the AL West, that may strengthen Alvarez’s case. If they don’t, Witt’s team situation may matter less than it does right now.
For Houston, the instinct is obvious: vote for Yordan. But the broader picture says the race is tighter than the raw batting stats make it seem.
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