The last Friday night of the MLB regular season brings one more shot at home run props before the calendar flips to October, and there are three long-ball targets worth circling.
Start with Kazuma Okamoto. Nick Lodolo is on the mound for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, giving up 1.74 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Okamoto, the Blue Jays' home run leader, has done his best work against lefties, hitting 10 home runs and posting a .517 slugging percentage against them. That sets up a clear angle for one more dinger before the season ends.
Miguel Vargas is the next name on the board. Tomoyuki Sugano gets the ball for the Colorado Rockies, and his home run prevention has been shaky all year.
Among pitchers with 80+ innings pitched this season, he owns the seventh-highest home runs allowed rate at 1.89. The damage hasn’t been limited to Coors Field, either, since he has allowed more home runs on the road (18) than at home (13).
Vargas, the White Sox' home run leader, is being backed to go deep for his 34th homer of the season.
Jose Altuve rounds out the group, and the split matters here. He has been much more dangerous against left-handed pitching, with a .441 slugging percentage against lefties compared to .386 against righties.
The Astros will face lefty starter Jacob Lopez of the Athletics, who has allowed 1.69 home runs per nine innings pitched this season. That combination makes Altuve a live option to leave the yard.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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