Jeremy Peña’s 2026 slide has complicated what once looked like a clear path to a monster payday, but it hasn’t wiped out his market. It has, however, made the numbers a lot more interesting.
For a stretch, Peña looked like he was building toward the kind of contract reserved for the game’s elite shortstops. He was excellent in 2025, when he put together a 135 WRC+, saved runs at short with eight Outs Above Average, and piled up a career-best 5.7 fWAR.
That season brought his first All-Star nod and a 10th-place finish in AL MVP voting. With two years still left before his first shot at free agency, the idea of a $300 million deal didn’t feel far-fetched.
Then came August.
Through the end of July, Peña was still raking, hitting .317/.370/.508/.879. But August hit him hard.
He batted .184 with a .674 OPS for the month, and that slump pulled his season line down to .282 with an .814 OPS. The defense has gone the other direction too.
Peña sits at -2 OAA this season, and his overall value has dipped to 2.9 fWAR through August 27.
Even with the downturn, Peña is still in line for a significant raise before he reaches free agency. He has one year of arbitration left, and Spotrac projects his 2027 salary at $17.5 million, up from $9.475 million this year. The bigger question is what the free-agent market will look like when he gets there.
Back in May 2025, ESPN senior MLB insider Jeff Passan pegged Peña as a player on a similar track to Willy Adames, who landed a 7-year, $182 million deal with the Giants. Passan wrote then, " Peña isn't much of a threat to finish high in MVP voting". Peña’s breakout 2025 changed that conversation fast, but his uneven 2026 has pushed it back toward the middle.
Adames still makes for a useful comparison. He broke out in his fourth season, had a down year after that, and then posted a career-best 2024 with a 121 WRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in his final season in Milwaukee, which helped land him the San Francisco contract.
His peak season, a 126 WRC+, came at age 24 in his second year with Tampa. Peña’s best work in both 2025 and 2026 has topped that.
Adames has also had the stronger defensive seasons overall, even though he finished his last Brewers year at zero OAA. He was a year younger than Peña will be when he hits free agency, too.
That’s why the comparison is useful without being perfect. Adames is earning $26 million per year, and if Peña steadies himself over the rest of 2026 and gets back closer to his 2025 level next year, he could top that average annual value and land a similar term.
Peña also has Scott Boras in his corner, which usually means a client is going to push the market hard. A reasonable estimate is $177 million over six years, or $29.5 million annually.
The length is where things get tricky. In recent memory, only Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts have signed shortstop deals longer than eight years, and those contracts have not aged especially well.
Seven-year deals have gone to Adames and Dansby Swanson, and neither was 30 when they signed. Peña should still be in position to outproduce Adames and Swanson when he reaches the market, which could lift his AAV, but his age makes anything much longer than six years feel unlikely.
Even with the rough patch, Peña remains one of the better shortstops in baseball. He became a key answer for Houston after Carlos Correa left, and he has already shown he can play at an elite level. If he finds more consistency, the next mega-deal should still be there waiting.
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