Jeremy Peña’s bat has become one of the clearest indicators of where the Astros are headed.
When he’s rolling, Houston looks dangerous. When he cools off, the offense loses a spark it badly needs. That’s been the story again lately, with Peña’s recent slump lining up with a rougher stretch for the Astros season.
And yet, even with the cold spell, Peña’s body of work over the last two seasons still sits at the top of the shortstop class across the majors.
Among the 25 players who have come to the plate at least 600 times and played at least 75% of their games at shortstop over the last two seasons, Peña leads the group in OPS+ at 134. Bobby Witt Jr. is next at 132, while Corey Seager of the rival Texas Rangers is third at 129. Peña also owns the best batting average in that span at .298, ahead of Jacob Wilson’s .293.
That production has come with real value beyond the box score. Even after injuries cost him almost a quarter of last season, Peña still posted a 5.7 bWAR, the best mark of his career. He now has 21.4 bWAR for his career, which works out to 5.4 per 162 games.
For an Astros franchise that has leaned on star power for years, that rate puts him in some familiar company. Among Astros with at least 10 career bWAR, his 5.4 per 162 ranks seventh behind Carlos Correa, Jeff Bagwell, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and George Springer.
Peña has also given Houston plenty on the bases. He has 28 steals and only three times caught stealing over the last two seasons, and for his career he is 72 of 92 in stolen-base attempts. Baseball Reference has credited him with at least three baserunning runs above average in each of the last three seasons.
The trouble right now is that the recent version of Peña looks nothing like the one who was carrying the lineup not long ago. He has a mini four-game hitting streak, but in each of the last four games he has managed only one hit. Over his last 11 games, he is 5-for-47 with two doubles and a home run.
That stretch has dragged his OPS down to .373. In a span where he went from scorching to ice-cold, the Astros went 5-6.
The 11 games before that told the opposite story. Peña hit 22-for-51 with five home runs, three doubles and a triple, good for a 1.286 OPS. Houston went 9-2 in those games.
There’s no easy explanation for the drop-off. His strikeout numbers have jumped during the slump, which suggests this isn’t just a case of bad luck.
However it’s sorted out, the Astros need Peña’s bat back where it was if they want to stay in the American League race. His production has tracked closely with Houston’s wins and losses, and right now that connection is impossible to miss.
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