Jeremy Peña’s recent surge has put a familiar offseason question right back in the Astros’ lap: how far should Houston go to keep him?
The next general manager will have a few big decisions to make once the season ends, and Peña sits near the top of the list. He has one more year of club control left, which means the Astros have to decide whether his next big payday happens in Houston or somewhere else. He’s also the next major position player in line for that kind of money.
To sort through the value, the discussion leans on WAR as a guide, using both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs to get a broader read. FanGraphs generally prices one win above replacement at about eight million dollars a year, and that number only climbs over time. Locking in a deal now freezes that rate, which is why a long-term contract can look like a bargain later on.
Peña’s recent seasons give a strong baseline for that kind of conversation. The numbers in the source point to a player averaging 4.46 BWAR, 3.58 FWAR and 4.06 overall across the seasons listed, with 2025 standing out as his best year at 5.7 BWAR, 5.8 FWAR and 5.8 on average.
The spread between the two systems mostly comes down to defense and some differences in offensive evaluation. Baseball-Reference is more optimistic on his fielding because it leans on defensive runs saved, while FanGraphs uses outs above average and fielding run value, which have been less generous to Peña.
The offensive inputs also don’t always line up perfectly.
From there, the projection turns into an aging curve. The point is simple: careers don’t move in a straight line.
A player who averages four wins doesn’t stay there forever, and Peña is expected to hold that kind of production through his prime before things start to slip. The projection assumes he stays in his prime through age 32.
Since he’ll be 29 next season, that gives Houston about four seasons if an extension were signed after this year.
Then comes the part every agent loves: laying out the menu. Under the projection, Peña could be worth 16 wins over four years, 19 over five, 22 over six, 25 over seven and 27 over eight, all priced at eight million per win.
That works out to $128 million for four years, $152 million for five, $176 million for six, $200 million for seven and $216 million for eight. The longer the deal gets, the more the average annual value comes down.
An eight-year contract would land at $27 million per season, and a hypothetical 10-year deal would come in at $25.8 million AAV.
Houston’s ownership history matters here, too. Under Jim Crane, the Astros have never gone beyond six years, so going to eight would be hard to picture.
But the larger point is that the club would be buying years at the front end and accepting the risk that comes later. The longer the deal runs, the more the late seasons are priced lower.
That’s where the real decision starts for the Astros. If Peña wants eight years and the team won’t go past six, the answer is already there. And if Houston doesn’t want to meet the number, the winter could be the time to move him, the way the club did with Kyle Tucker.
There’s also the aging question. José Altuve is the cautionary example.
That’s why the idea here is to avoid paying players beyond 35. The preferred ceiling, in this view, would be seven years at most.
Then there’s the franchise legacy angle. By the time a deal like this would run its course, Peña could be sitting on 45 career wins.
The question is whether that kind of resume points toward Cooperstown territory. That matters in Houston because the franchise already has Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, and José Altuve will join them when he retires.
Alex Bregman could have been in that group if the Astros had kept him. Carlos Correa is still a borderline case depending on what he does over the next few years.
The real comparison for Peña is whether he belongs with that tier or closer to George Springer, who has been a very good player but not a Hall of Fame-level one.
The conclusion here is pretty clear: Peña looks like a strong player, but not quite a Bagwell, Biggio or Altuve type. That makes him valuable, but also the kind of player a team can’t afford to pay forever at the top of the market.
The recommendation is a four- or five-year offer with strong money, and then stop there if Peña wants longer term. Either way, this is shaping up to be a tough negotiation.
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