The Astros’ biggest offseason call is sitting right in front of them, and it all centers on Jeremy Peña.
Houston has spent time moving piece by piece around the diamond, but every road seems to lead back to the same question: what do they do with Peña? The answer could shape the offseason more than anything else the new general manager has to tackle.
One way to frame it is to strip Peña out of the shortstop market and see where he stacks up against the rest of the position. Using the last five seasons and measuring value with both bWAR and fWAR, Peña’s numbers land him in the middle of a strong group of shortstops.
Among the names listed - Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogearts, Willy Adames, Corey Seager, Bobby Witt, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts and Carlos Correa - Peña’s 680 games played would rank seventh. His 22.2 bWAR would place him sixth, his 17.9 fWAR eighth, his 4.90 bWAR per 150 games fifth, and his 3.95 fWAR per 150 games eighth.
That puts him in a range that is hard to ignore. He looks a lot like the average shortstop in that group, just without the salary attached. The numbers suggest a player who fits comfortably in the middle tier, which is exactly why the asking price becomes such a major issue.
A team working with a $240 million budget can afford to pay that kind of money. The real question is whether it should.
That decision splits into two separate debates. First, can Peña keep producing at this level over the life of a long-term deal?
The warning signs are right there in the comparison group, including several players who have not delivered enough to justify their contracts. Houston would obviously hope Peña gives them more than Correa, Story, Adames, and Bogaerts.
The second question is tougher. Could the Astros get more out of those resources by spreading them around?
Could two $15 million players outproduce Peña alone? Could three $10 million players do even better?
If the right pieces are identified, the math says yes. But baseball never stays in the spreadsheet for long, and that is where the discussion shifts from pure value to something broader.
If Peña landed an eight-year, $240 million deal, the upside is enormous. A four-win average across that contract would push him to 54 bWAR and 50 fWAR, which would put him in borderline Hall of Fame territory.
Add another postseason run like the kind he has already shown he can deliver, and the legacy conversation gets even louder. Thirteen seasons in one uniform would also move him into the same kind of company as Jose Altuve, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Bagwell.
That matters.
But there is another route, and it comes with its own appeal. A deal or trade path similar to the Kyle Tucker move could bring back two or three useful players and also reduce what Peña would be due in arbitration in 2027.
Spotrac estimates that number at $13.1 million, though it could climb as high as $17.5 million. The Astros could save roughly $10 million in salary if they got younger players back in a trade, and then use that money elsewhere.
That is a tempting argument too.
The expectation is that the club will know who its new lead executive is in a couple of days, once the World Series gives teams a window to announce hires. Whoever gets the job will have Peña at the top of the offseason to-do list.
Keep him long term, or move him now and take the return. There are real arguments on both sides, but standing still is not one of the options.
The clock is already running.
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