The Astros have made this whole thing messy in the most Astros way possible. They spent April looking like a team headed for 100 losses, then flipped the script in June and suddenly looked like a division contender again. That turnaround matters for Dana Brown, because with Jim Crane never extending him and Brown in the final year of his deal, wins are the only real lifeline.
Houston’s push back into a crowded American League West has changed the mood, but it hasn’t simplified the deadline. Crane has already made it clear a teardown is off the table, which leaves Brown with one job: add help. The problem is that several players on the roster are making that job a lot tougher than it should be.
The biggest headache might be Mike Burrows, because this is a move Brown actually made to solve a problem. Houston sent Jacob Melton, its number two prospect, along with Anderson Brito in a three-team deal to bring in Burrows and try to cover the loss of Framber Valdez.
So far, that return has been rough. Burrows has entered play this week at 3-8 with a 5.48 ERA, and after breaking out last year in Pittsburgh, he has regressed in almost every category this season.
That matters beyond the box score. Every bad Burrows start isn’t just another loss; it’s a fresh reminder that the winter trade hasn’t delivered. And it keeps rotation help near the top of Brown’s deadline list, which is not exactly the kind of evidence he wants attached to his future.
Lance McCullers Jr. is another rotation issue, though this one isn’t on Brown and isn’t something he can really fix. The 2026 rotation was built with the idea that McCullers would keep working his way back and give Houston a much better 2025.
For one start, that looked like a smart bet. Since then, not so much.
He’s now sidelined with an injury, could return sometime in the next few weeks, and his long injury history makes even that uncertain. On top of that, he’s a sunk cost right now, which means he can’t even be used as part of a deal to help Brown elsewhere.
Jake Meyers has turned what once looked like a strength into a problem. He can still cover ground in center field, but the offense has cratered.
After posting .292/.354/.373 in 2025, he’s down to .205/.264/.318 through Sunday’s action. He’s been in and out of the lineup because of the bat, with Taylor Trammell and Brice Matthews getting opportunities, and he’s also missed time with an injury.
With outfield depth already thin, not being able to count on the player expected to anchor the spot creates a need that won’t be easy to fill at the deadline.
Spencer Arrighetti has been the cruelest version of this problem. He was the answer for two months, then June arrived and he turned back into a question.
He has allowed three or more runs in all five of his June starts, and over his last two outings he’s given up 14 runs in nine innings. For the month, he’s sitting on a 9.00 ERA in 25 innings with seven home runs allowed.
Brown is going to need rotation help anyway, but not being able to trust the pitcher he thought he could lean on makes the task even harder.
Bryan Abreu has been a concern almost all season, too. He was outstanding last year, but this season has been a mess for most of the first half.
By the end of April, he owned a 12.54 ERA, then settled in for a strong May on the surface, allowing just one run over nine innings. Even there, the warning signs were there: seven strikeouts and seven walks in those nine innings.
He gave up three runs in his first outing in June and has allowed only two other runs this month with better peripherals, but the unease hasn’t gone away. When one of your highest-leverage arms can’t be fully trusted, it complicates everything.
And yet the top of the roster is doing its part. Yordan Alvarez has a shot at the Triple Crown.
Jeremy Peña has been excellent since coming back. Christian Walker has bounced back after a down year.
Josh Hader has looked unbelievable since returning. Hunter Brown hasn’t been dominant, but he’s been good enough in his three starts since he came back.
Jose Altuve is the only real exception, though even he hasn’t been a disaster. The core is holding steady. It’s the rest of the group - plus the pressure created by Brown’s own moves - that has left Houston balanced on a razor’s edge.
The deadline comes on August 3, and Brown has essentially locked himself into buying. That makes sense for a general manager trying to earn himself another year or two, especially with his name sitting near the top of just about every hot-seat list. But those five players have made his to-do list longer, and the margin for error much smaller, than he wanted.
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The concern for Houston is not just the slump itself, but what it says about Walkers overall value at a time when the club needs clarity on where it stands. The underlying data has been less encouraging than the surface results, and with the deadline approaching, the Astros are left weighing whether this is the kind of player they can count on to rebound, or one whose stock may already be slipping at the wrong time. [Read more 🡒]
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FanGraphs still gives Houston a path, but it is a narrow one, with the club sitting at 33.1 percent to reach the postseason and only modest odds to catch the division leaders. The next chance to make up ground comes against Tampa Bay, and the opening game will carry extra attention not just because of the opponent, but because the Astros need stability from a rotation that has had its share of uneven stretches lately. [Read more 🡒]