The Mariners have spent most of this season looking like one of baseball’s biggest letdowns, but the door is still cracked open for a real finish. They’re only 2 ½ games behind the shaky Astros in the AL West, with the Rangers just a half game back of Houston, and that keeps Seattle in the conversation for more than just a wild-card spot. There’s even a path to the three seed in the American League bracket, and maybe, if things break right, the two seed and a bye.
That kind of climb would have sounded absurd not long ago. Seattle just came through a brutal August stretch that threw the Rays, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Cubs and Phillies at them, and they didn’t fold. The Mariners have won eight of their last 12, took a series in Houston and won home series against both the Cubs and Phillies.
A big reason the mood around the club has shifted: Cal Raleigh suddenly looks alive again.
Raleigh has been the poster child for Seattle’s disappointment this year. Through Aug. 15, he was slashing .156/.266/.291 with 12 homers in 90 games after last season’s 60-homer explosion that left him just short of MVP, behind Aaron Judge by a few votes.
But the last stretch has looked nothing like the first half. Over his last nine games, Raleigh is hitting .348 with a .531 on-base percentage and six home runs, including three Monday night against the Phillies.
Narrow that to the last five games and the numbers get even louder: a .438 average, more walks than strikeouts, five homers and eight RBI. The three-homer night obviously pumps up the totals, but that kind of power binge was part of his identity last year too.
There’s also this: the Mariners haven’t lost a game in which Raleigh homered since April 27. Since then, they are 9-0 when he goes deep.
Seattle will need more than one bat catching fire to make a serious push, but Raleigh matters that much. If he’s turning the corner, that changes the whole look of this team.
And then there’s the schedule.
The next stop is Toronto, where the Mariners will face the subpar-but-sometimes-competent Blue Jays this weekend before heading to Fenway Park for three games against the likely playoff-bound Red Sox. That road trip is no joke, but it’s manageable. After that, the path opens up in a way Seattle couldn’t have asked for much better.
The rest of the slate includes four home games against the Athletics, three at home against the Rangers, three in Sacramento against the A’s, three in Anaheim against the Angels, three at Coors Field against the Rockies, two home games against the Astros and four more at home against the Angels.
When you stack it all up, the Mariners’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .440. That’s the easiest remaining schedule in baseball.
The Astros and Rangers, by comparison, both sit in the top half of the league in remaining schedule difficulty, with opponents winning percentages above .500. Seattle also gets those head-to-head chances at home, which gives them a direct shot to sort out the race themselves.
The odds show just how tight this is. Via Caesars, the Astros are +145 to win the NL West, the Mariners are +160 and the Rangers are +240.
Seattle at +160 is enough to make a believer out of me.
That doesn’t mean the Mariners can just coast into September and expect the bad teams to roll over. They’ve been nine games under .500 this season, haven’t been over .500 since June 9 and are tied for 19th in winning percentage. They’re only 34-34 against sub-.500 teams, so the ugly part of the resume is still very much there.
Still, the setup is there for a rescue act. The American League bracket looks wide open, and the Mariners have a real chance to turn a disappointing year into something far more dangerous.
First, Raleigh has to keep mashing. Then Seattle has to do what good teams do against the bottom of the schedule.
In Other News...
Joe Espada Just Sent Astros A Message They Cannot Ignore
With the Astros parting ways with general manager Dana Brown, the focus quickly shifted to Joe Espada and whether the shakeup in the front office would reach the dugout. It did not. Jim Crane said Espada will remain manager for the rest of the season, putting an immediate end to any short-term speculation about his status and allowing the club to stay centered on the race still in front of it.
Espada, for his part, did not sound interested in treating the news like a reprieve. He pushed the message that Houston has to play with urgency as it tries to secure a postseason berth, a reminder that the season is still very much alive even with uncertainty waiting beyond it. The contract question will wait until after the season, but the pressure on the Astros to respond right now is already here. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Turn Back To A Familiar Voice As Pitching Pressure Mounts
As the Astros try to steady a pitching staff that has been hit by both performance issues and injuries, they are turning to a familiar figure for help down the stretch. Brent Strom is returning to Houston as a pitching consultant for the rest of the season, manager Joe Espada said, and he is expected to meet the team in New York to begin working with the staff.
Strom is hardly an outsider to the organization, having previously served as the Astros pitching coach before going on to bring his experience to other teams. Bringing him back now underscores how seriously Houston is taking the strain on the mound as the divisional race tightens, with the club looking for any edge it can find during the final push. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Prospect Jason Schiavone Is Forcing A Bigger Conversation
Jason Schiavone is turning a hot stretch at Double-A Corpus Christi into something harder to ignore. He went deep twice for the second straight game, and even in a 10-9 loss to Amarillo, the power display only strengthened the sense that Houston has a prospect who is doing more than just filling out a box score. Across two levels, Schiavone has pushed his season slash line to .261/.402/.551 and now leads Astros prospects with 29 home runs.
For a system that is always looking for the next impact bat, the timing matters. Astros director of player development Sam Niedorf has already pointed to Schiavones work ethic and development as reasons for the surge, and the production is making that praise look increasingly warranted. The bigger question now is how long he can keep forcing the conversation as the season wears on, and what kind of attention that kind of power will demand next. [Read more 🡒]