The Astros and Rangers are locked together at the top of the AL West, and the timing could hardly be tighter.
Houston dropped a 5-2 decision to the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night, slipping to 76-76. Texas answered by beating the Boston Red Sox 7-3, pulling even at 76-76 and turning the division race into a dead heat with 10 games left.
For the Astros, the next few days carry real weight. They’ll wrap up their three-game set with Kansas City on Thursday afternoon before returning home for a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves to close out their final regular-season homestand. Texas finishes its series with Boston on Thursday, then heads into its last homestand against the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets.
The playoff picture has shifted with the standings. FanGraphs had Houston at a 78.5% chance to make the playoffs entering Tuesday, along with a 75.4% chance to win the division. After Wednesday’s loss and the tie at the top, those numbers moved to 67.5% to make the postseason and 61.8% to win the AL West.
Texas, meanwhile, sits at 37.9% to win the division and 49.6% to make the playoffs outright.
Even with the dip, Houston is still viewed as the favorite in the division race. The Astros have spent the season bouncing through plenty of uneven stretches, yet they’re still right in the middle of the fight after being dismissed by plenty of people before the MLB Trade Deadline.
One more wrinkle: no team in the AL West has a positive run differential, but one of them will still get in, and maybe both depending on how the AL Wild-Card race sorts itself out.
Houston’s offense has to do its part now, and that starts with Yordan Alvarez, the likely American League MVP. The Astros need a run of productive at-bats over these final games, because the season is coming down to that stretch.
In Other News...
Josh Hader Gives Astros Fans Another Reason To Be Proud
Josh Hader has already given the Astros a reason to feel good about the ninth inning, and now he is being recognized for work that goes far beyond the mound. Houston has nominated its closer for the Roberto Clemente Award, a league honor that celebrates community involvement and philanthropic efforts, putting Hader in a conversation that reflects both his impact on the field and the way he has carried himself away from it.
Hader and his wife launched Haders Heart to support children in Child Protective Services and at-risk youth, working with local organizations such as BEAR Houston and Covenant House. It adds another layer to a season in which Hader has been a major piece for Houston despite missing the first two months because of injury, and it leaves the Astros with a closer whose value has shown up in more ways than one. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Just Let The AL West Race Get A Lot Tighter
The Astros came home needing a steadier night, but Kansas City handed them one instead. Houston fell 5-2 at Daikin Park, a loss that dropped the club back to .500 and added more pressure to a division race that is getting crowded at the wrong time.
Cristian Javier gave the Astros a solid enough start, working 5 1/3 innings and allowing two runs, and Jeremy Pea did his part with three hits. Still, Houston could not do much with traffic on the bases, repeatedly failing to push runners beyond second, and the Royals broke it open with three runs in the eighth to leave the Astros looking up again in the AL West. [Read more 🡒]
Yordan lvarez Is Getting Overlooked In An MVP Debate Astros Fans Will Hate
Yordan Alvarez has spent much of this season doing what he always seems to do for the Astros, which is punish mistakes and force pitchers to work around him. This has become a career-best offensive year for him, with Alvarez sitting atop the American League in several key categories, including batting average, on-base percentage and intentional walks, a reminder of just how complete his bat has been for Houston.
Still, the MVP conversation is not always following the numbers in a straight line. Junior Caminero has been getting attention for another big power season with Tampa Bay, but the broader case gets murkier once his defensive profile enters the picture, especially when weighed against Alvarezs all-around offensive edge. Former MLB GM Jim Bowden has even argued Caminero should be the AL MVP, a stance Astros fans are unlikely to love, and one that keeps Alvarezs standing in the race from feeling as secure as his production suggests. [Read more 🡒]