The Houston Astros have spent most of this season living around .500, or just under it, which makes their place in the American League race look a little strange at first glance.
And yet there they are: still in position to chase an automatic ALDS berth if they can win the AL West and finish with one of the top two records in the league. That possibility stands out even more because the division they’re trying to win has been a mess. The AL West has been the weakest of the six divisions, and none of its five teams has a positive run differential.
Houston’s own number is ugly too. The Astros sit at minus-50, which is the sixth-worst run differential in the American League. On paper, that doesn’t look like the profile of a team built for a serious October push.
Still, ESPN’s David Schoenfield sees a club that could be more dangerous than the season-long record suggests. He pointed to the recent improvement in the rotation, especially in September, when Houston’s starters have posted a 3.15 ERA, fourth-best in the majors. Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski have both been throwing well, Cristian Javier has strung together three straight good starts, and Peter Lamber has been the one starter who has stayed both healthy and steady all year.
Even so, Schoenfield made clear that the pitching staff remains the biggest issue heading into the postseason.
The rest of the roster gives Houston plenty to worry opponents about anyway. Josh Hader is there to slam the door, and Yordan Alvarez is still the front-runner for AL MVP. Add in the power in the lineup, and the Astros suddenly look a lot more threatening than their record would lead you to believe.
"So let's see: dominant closer, the best hitter in the game this season, power, and a rotation that has been mostly awful all season but is peaking at the right time. Consider yourself warned," Schoenfield added.
Based strictly on what Houston has done across the full regular season, confidence is hard to come by. But the Astros also carry the kind of organizational muscle that changes how people view them in October. From 2017-23, they reached seven straight AL Championship Series, and that history is part of why nobody is eager to dismiss them outright.
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Astros Still In The Race But One Debate Wont Go Away
The Astros are still right in the thick of the race, and even a loss with a solid start from Peter Lambert did little to change the bigger picture. Houston remains tied with the Rangers in the standings, with the tiebreaker still in the Astros favor, so the margin for error is slim but the path remains there if they keep stacking wins.
What has not gone away is the debate around how this front office operates and who really shapes the direction of the club. Speculation continues around the general manager position, while Jeff Bagwell and owner Jim Crane are still being mentioned as influences on team decisions, leaving Houston with another layer of uncertainty even as the standings keep the focus on the stretch run. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Lineup Looked Dangerous Again In A Win Fans Needed
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For a club that has spent stretches searching for a cleaner, more dangerous lineup, this was the kind of game fans were waiting to see. It also fit a familiar pattern for Houston, which has generally been at its best when the power shows up in bunches, and now the question is whether this was a one-night spark or something they can carry forward. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Bench Picture Just Got More Complicated With Brice Matthews Back
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Jorge Barrosas stay with the Astros was brief, lasting just four games before the roster squeeze caught up with him. Now Houston has to wait and see whether another team claims him or whether he clears waivers and remains in the organization, a small but real example of how tight the bench picture can get when a team starts juggling health, versatility and the last few spots on the roster. [Read more 🡒]