The Astros went looking for help in the outfield at the trade deadline, but the problem they were trying to fix is still hanging over them as October approaches.
Daulton Varsho was supposed to be a meaningful piece of that answer, at least in the long run. Instead, his bat has gone cold at exactly the wrong time.
After putting together a 116 wRC+ and a .786 OPS in June, he stumbled badly in July, finishing the month with a .482 OPS and a 35 wRC+. The ugly part for Houston is that the OPS hasn’t budged - it’s still sitting at .482 - even if there has been a small uptick in his overall line.
His 44 wRC+ reflects that modest improvement, helped in part by a better approach at the plate, with a 13.2 BB% this month after dropping to 4.6% in July.
There’s still a path back for Varsho offensively, but Houston’s outfield issues go far beyond one slump. As a group, Astros outfielders have been the least productive in the American League by several key measures: last in wRC+ (91), AVG (.220), OBP (.298), BABIP (.271), and wOBA (.300), while also carrying the league’s highest strikeout rate at 25.7%.
That said, it hasn’t been all bad news. The outfield has still managed to generate power, ranking fourth in home runs with 46, sixth in ISO at .161, and sixth in BB% at 9.0.
Plate discipline has shown up in spots, too. Taylor Trammell has posted a 13.7% walk rate and LaMonte Wade Jr. has been even better at 19.4% in the second half.
But those flashes haven’t been enough to turn the unit into a real strength.
Cam Smith is the clearest reason for optimism. Last season, in his debut, he made a strong first impression with his tools and held his own over 134 games. At 22, he battled at the plate but still managed 1.0 fWAR and a 90 wRC+ across 493 plate appearances, showing a little of everything.
This year, Houston wanted more refinement from him, especially in pitch recognition and plate discipline, along with a return to the kind of production he had when he posted a .320 BABIP. Instead, the early signs of a breakout are starting to show up in the box score.
Smith has already reached career highs with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and 34 extra-base hits, including 15 doubles and three triples. His BABIP has dropped to .260 because of the added power, but the more aggressive approach has paid off.
In 121 games, he has produced 1.6 fWAR, a 92 wRC+, and 3.4 Base running runs above, giving Houston a more productive and more dangerous version of himself.
The split between his first and second halves tells the story. In the first half, Smith hit .219/.292/.378 with a .671 OPS and an 88 wRC+ in 360 plate appearances. In the second half, he’s up to .241/.294/.468 with a .762 OPS and a 111 wRC+ in 85 plate appearances.
He’s walking less after the break - 4.70 BB% compared with 8.60% before - but his on-base percentage has held steady because the contact has improved. His ISO has jumped to .256 from .159, and his BABIP has climbed to .294, much closer to where it was last season.
Even with Smith’s progress, Houston still needs more from the rest of the outfield on both sides of the ball. Varsho is the defensive headliner in the group, and Smith’s work has helped him get to 2 DRS this season.
But the bigger picture is still shaky. With their best defensive pieces included, the Astros sit 17th with a negative DRS of -7.
Brice Matthews has been the best defender in the mix with 5 DRS, followed by Joey Loperfido at 1 and Jake Meyers at 0. On the other side of the ledger, Trammell is at -6 and Wade Jr. at -2, even though both have given Houston some offensive help in the second half.
The Astros brought in Varsho for offense, experience, and, most of all, defensive leadership. Even in a rough stretch with the glove over the last two months, he still profiles as an elite fielder.
Smith has become a much steadier presence. But the outfield as a whole still hasn’t settled down, and that remains the issue Houston has to solve before October.
In Other News...
Astros Are Suddenly Getting Praise For Their First Round Gamble
When the Astros used the 17th pick in the MLB draft on Logan Hughes, it was the kind of first-round swing that invited immediate scrutiny. The 21-year-old outfielder, who played at Stetson and Texas Tech, has given the organization plenty to feel good about early, hitting .359 in his first nine games at Single-A while piling up seven extra-base hits and 13 RBIs.
Hughes has also added to the intrigue by moving around the field, seeing time at first base and in the corner outfield spots. For Houston, the early returns are exactly what a team hopes for when it takes a calculated risk in round one, and the encouraging start has turned a draft-night gamble into one of the organizations more interesting developments to follow. [Read more 🡒]
Cristian Javier Is Becoming An Astros Problem At The Worst Time
Cristian Javier gave the Astros exactly the kind of early lift they needed, working four strong innings before the game started to slip away in the fifth. Even so, the outing fit the uneasy pattern that has followed him since returning from injury in July, when his stuff has flashed at times but his command and overall consistency have not held up long enough to let Houston breathe easy.
For a club trying to keep pace in a tight playoff race, that has become more than just a starting pitching concern. Javier has had trouble working deep into games, opponents have been squaring him up at a high rate, and every short start puts more pressure on a bullpen that is already being asked to carry a heavy load at the worst possible time. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Face A Brutal September Test With The AL West Tight
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The next month is lined with opponents who have every reason to matter in October, from the Yankees and Mets to the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rays, Braves and Mariners. For the Astros, that means little margin for error and plenty of chances to either build separation or invite more pressure into a division chase that still feels wide open. [Read more 🡒]