The Houston Astros are heading into the 2026 season with a bold plan: a six-man rotation. On the surface, it’s a smart move.
This is a starting staff that’s equal parts promise and question marks, and giving more guys a chance to prove themselves early could pay dividends. But dig a little deeper, and the ripple effects start to get a little murky-especially when it comes to the bullpen.
Let’s start with the positives. The six-man setup fits nicely with the transition of Tatsuya Imai, the high-profile addition from Japan.
Imai is used to pitching on extra rest, and keeping him on that rhythm could ease his adjustment to MLB life. At the same time, the extra day between starts could be a lifeline for Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier, both of whom have been battling significant injury issues in recent years.
If the Astros can keep their arms healthier by spacing out the workload, that’s a win.
But here’s where things get tricky. Adding a sixth starter means sacrificing a bullpen spot. And for a team that has leaned heavily on its relievers in recent years, that’s not a small trade-off.
Houston’s bullpen has been a safety net, especially when the back end of the rotation has struggled. And let’s be honest-there’s a real chance we see more of that in 2026.
Imai is talented, but he’s still an unknown at the major league level. Ryan Weiss is in a similar boat.
Mike Burrows hasn’t logged a full season’s worth of innings, and if McCullers or Javier falter-whether due to performance or health-the bullpen could be asked to clean up a lot of messes.
That’s a problem, especially considering the state of the bullpen itself. Josh Hader, the anchor of the relief corps, is coming off a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 season in early August.
And the numbers tell the story: before Hader went down, Houston’s bullpen had a sparkling 3.30 ERA, second-best in the majors. After his injury?
That ERA jumped to 4.62, dropping them to 23rd. That’s not just a dip-that’s a collapse.
Hader’s presence clearly matters, and if he’s not 100%, the margin for error shrinks fast.
Compounding the issue is the lack of roster flexibility. The Astros can’t easily shuffle relievers between Triple-A and the bigs to keep fresh arms in the mix.
Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz can’t be sent down without being offered back to Cincinnati, and outside of lefty Bryan King, the rest of the projected bullpen is out of minor league options. That means the club doesn’t have the luxury of rotating arms in and out to manage fatigue.
So what does this all mean? The Astros are walking a tightrope.
A six-man rotation could help protect their starters and ease Imai’s transition, but it also puts a lot of strain on a bullpen that’s already dealing with health concerns and limited depth. If the rotation doesn’t hold up-and that’s a big “if”-the relievers could be stretched too thin, too early.
This approach might work in the short term, especially in April when off-days are more frequent. But over the grind of a 162-game season, the Astros will need to find a more sustainable balance. Whether that means trimming the rotation back to five, finding bullpen reinforcements, or making a tough roster decision, something’s going to have to give.
Because if the bullpen breaks down again, the consequences could be far more costly than a few extra innings.