Rebuilding the rotation has to be the Astros’ first order of business this winter, because the 2026 season left the staff with a pile of ugly numbers that all point in the same direction.
Houston’s starters produced only 44 quality starts, a franchise-worst 27.2%. That sat well behind the 40.7% mark from the 2021 rotation, which had been the previous low point over the last 10 seasons. The Astros also had to sift through 19 different starters, and 12 of them made at least five starts, a clear sign of how much the group was patched together by injuries and inconsistency.
The rotation’s problems were deeper than just the revolving door. Houston piled up 60 starts that did not last five innings, with Tatsuya Imai (8), Cristian Javier (7), Peter Lambert (6), Hunter Brown (4), and Spencer Arrighetti (4) combining for 29 of those short outings. The openers used along the way may have played a part, but they were only one piece of a much larger collapse.
When the numbers get broader, the picture gets even worse. Houston’s starters finished with just 7.5 fWAR, and 87% of that came from Lambert (2.4) and Brown (1.9). Even more startling, the 2020 rotation posted 6.3 fWAR in only 60 starts during the shortened pandemic season, just 1.2 fewer than this group managed over a full year.
The performance metrics were just as harsh. The Astros finished with the worst xFIP, and in FanGraphs’ Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ categories, available since 2020, they landed at the bottom in every single one. Their Stuff+ grade was 99, the only number that even approached league average.
The contact profile tells the same story. Houston’s 2026 starters allowed the highest percentages of contact both inside and outside the strike zone, a blunt indicator of how exposed the pitch mix was. They also posted the lowest ground-ball rate and the second-highest home run rate, leaving the staff vulnerable to fly balls and unable to lean on the infield to escape trouble.
Strikeouts never came to the rescue either. The rotation finished with the worst strikeout rate of the decade and the highest walk rate, a combination that usually wrecks run prevention.
Houston already made one change on Tuesday, hiring Spencer Medick as the organization’s new pitching director. There are also rumors that Matt Kleine, assistant general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, could be a strong candidate for the club’s general manager job.
That makes the winter ahead even more important. The Astros can’t count on the same kind of break they got this year, when they won the American League West at 81-81 (.500), one game ahead of the Texas Rangers (80-82), despite a negative run differential of 32 runs, with 734 scored and 766 allowed.
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Peas place in that conversation is only getting bigger because shortstops with real impact are hard to come by, and the market tends to reward them accordingly. For an organization already thinking about the future and the possibility of labor uncertainty down the road, his status adds another layer to a decision that goes well beyond one season. [Read more 🡒]