The Astros have a ballpark problem, and it starts with the long ball.
Daikin Park wasn’t exactly kind to pitchers in 2026, finishing as the fifth-most home run-friendly park in baseball with a 113 home run park factor, even though it sat 2% below league average overall. The damage was especially pronounced for right-handed hitters, who posted a 117 home run park factor and routinely punished balls to the short porch in left field, where the Crawford Boxes sit just 310 feet away.
That backdrop is why Houston’s search for pitching has to be about more than name value. The club needs arms that can keep the ball in the park and steady both the rotation and the bullpen, because home runs have been a real problem.
Astros pitchers allowed 114 Doubters home runs in 2026, the second-highest total in baseball behind the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 185. The projection gap was also far tighter for Houston, with just 6.8 xHR separating actual and expected production, compared with Arizona’s 32.7 fewer home runs.
Several free-agent starters fit parts of the puzzle. Dustin May, Casey Mize and Clay Holmes have all been mentioned as sensible targets, but each comes with some concern about right-handed pull power.
Holmes posted the best home run profile of that group, though his HR/FB rate on Pull jumped from 20.7% last year to 29.4% this season. May improved from 46.2% in 2025 to 21.2%, while Mize’s drop-off looks the most alarming, with his xFIP moving from 6.60 to 8.45.
That’s where Michael Soroka enters the conversation as a more balanced option for Houston.
Soroka’s career has been a long climb back from injuries and inconsistency, but the right-hander has rebuilt enough value to matter again. Astros fans may remember his arrival with the Braves, when he debuted at 20 and threw six scoreless innings against the Mets on May 1, 2018. The real breakout came in his second season, when he put together a 13-4 campaign with a 2.68 ERA, a 3.85 xFIP and 4.0 fWAR over 174 ⅔ innings in 29 starts.
That version of Soroka worked because he didn’t need big strikeout totals to survive. He had enough command to stay ahead of hitters and enough feel to suppress home runs. After several years of trying to piece things back together, he finally produced another strong season this year.
Working in his first full season as a starter for the Diamondbacks, Soroka got back over 20 starts and 100 innings for the first time since 2019. He finished with the second-best fWAR of his career at 2.7, logging 116 innings across 21 games. His 8.84 strikeout rate was a little better than the brief 2019 version, his walk rate stayed in the same neighborhood at 2.25, and he kept the ball in the yard with an 8.0% home run rate after posting 12.0%, 14.4% and 26.5% in the previous three seasons with the Nationals and Cubs in 2025, the White Sox in 2024 and the Braves in 2023.
For Houston, the fit is obvious enough. Soroka’s ability to limit damage on pulled balls from right-handed hitters makes him stand out in a market where that trait matters a great deal.
Among qualified pitchers who allowed at least 145 pulled balls by right-handed hitters, Soroka had the third-lowest HR/FB rate at 17.1% after 147 batted balls. Only Dylan Cease, at 11.9% in 168 opportunities, and Landen Roupp, at 15.4% in 194 opportunities, were better in that group.
Hunter Brown, Houston’s top starter, did not qualify because he allowed 100 batted balls, but his allowed percentage was 47.1%.
Soroka’s work in a tough environment adds another layer to the case. Arizona pitchers were the most exposed in the Doubters home run category, and Chase Field has carried a 106 park effect since 2024, the second-highest mark in Major League Baseball behind only Coors Field at 111.
Even more impressive is that Soroka did this while hitters posted a 23.2% Pull AIR% rate against him, the highest of his career in seasons with at least 200 batters faced and well above the league average of 16.9%.
His four-seam fastball has been a big part of the rebound. The pitch finished in the 89th percentile, and its Run Value improved from -3 in 2025 to +4 this season. His breaking pitches also played a major role, ranking in the 91st percentile and helping him finish in the 91st percentile overall in pitching.
There’s still risk here, of course. Soroka’s injury history is part of the package, and this was a recovery season, not a long-established baseline.
That makes a short-term deal the cleanest path. Projections put him in the $15-17 million AAV range, and with Soroka set to pitch at 30 years old in 2027, a two-year deal in the $30-34 million range could be the kind of move that makes sense for both sides.
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Joe Espada Just Framed Yordan Alvarez As More Than A Slugger
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Former manager Joe Espada has been quick to frame Alvarez as more than a slugger, pointing to the discipline and approach that make his bat so difficult to game-plan against. For Houston, that matters because Alvarez is not just the lineups biggest threat in one area, he is the kind of hitter who can shape an entire series, and the conversation around him now is less about raw power than about how complete his offensive game has become. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Rumor Feels More Real With Rotation Help Still Needed
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Randy Flores adds an interesting layer to the fit. Houstons new general manager was in the Cardinals front office when they signed May last offseason, so there is already a built-in familiarity with how the pitcher was viewed before he logged 31 starts for St. Louis and Milwaukee and worked nearly 150 innings with a 4.70 ERA. The question now is whether that background turns interest into something more concrete as the Astros keep weighing their options. [Read more 🡒]
Isaac Paredes Just Gave Astros Fans A New Way To View His Season
Isaac Paredes first season with Houston ended with a little more recognition than many might have expected, as he landed 20th in American League MVP voting and picked up two 10th-place votes. For a player who quietly put together career bests in games played, hits and times on base, it was another reminder that his value went well beyond the occasional big swing.
Paredes also finished with a 4.1 WAR, giving the Astros a fuller picture of how steady his year really was. He even closed on a strong note, posting a .999 OPS in September, and he led the majors in pitches per plate appearance, a trait that fit neatly with the kind of at-bats Houston came to appreciate over the course of the season. [Read more 🡒]