The Houston Astros are heading into 2026 with something they haven’t dealt with in nearly a decade - questions about whether they’re still a postseason team.
After a dominant run that saw them reach the playoffs every year from 2017 through 2024, the Astros hit a wall last season. Injuries piled up, the roster underperformed, and for the first time in a long time, October baseball in Houston was just a memory. That stumble led to a shake-up behind the scenes, including the dismissal of head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randall and a significant overhaul of the coaching staff.
Now, the Astros are trying to hit the reset button. But while their lineup still has plenty of firepower and the bullpen remains solid, there’s one area that sticks out like a sore thumb: the starting rotation.
Let’s start with the obvious - Framber Valdez is gone. The longtime ace, who anchored this rotation during their postseason heyday, signed a three-year deal with the Detroit Tigers, where he’ll now join forces with Tarik Skubal in what’s shaping up to be a formidable one-two punch in the AL Central.
Houston didn’t sit on its hands after losing Valdez. The front office moved quickly to bring in reinforcements, signing Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai and former Pirates pitcher Mike Burrows, while also adding Ryan Weiss.
But let’s be real: that’s a big drop-off in proven talent. These are intriguing arms, sure, but none bring the track record or presence that Valdez offered every fifth day.
That leaves Hunter Brown as the de facto ace - and to his credit, he’s earned that title. Brown is coming off a breakout season that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting.
He’s got the stuff, the poise, and the upside to lead a staff. But behind him?
That’s where things get murky.
This isn’t just a matter of perception, either. According to FanGraphs projections, Houston’s rotation ranks 23rd in the league in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).
That’s a stat that strips away defense and luck to focus on what pitchers can control - strikeouts, walks, and home runs. And that kind of ranking for a team with playoff aspirations is, frankly, alarming.
As ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle put it, the issue isn’t that Houston ignored its rotation - they made moves. But the quality and depth of those moves are where the questions lie.
This is a franchise that’s been used to trotting out frontline starters year after year, from Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. Now, they’re banking on a mix of unproven arms and international talent adjusting quickly to the big leagues.
And that’s no small ask. Making the jump from overseas leagues to MLB is a challenge - the travel, the schedule, the hitters - it’s a different animal. Imai, in particular, brings a lot of intrigue, but until he shows he can navigate a big-league lineup consistently, there’s going to be skepticism.
Of course, projections aren’t destiny. This group could absolutely surprise people.
Brown might take another leap. Imai could be the next breakout import.
Burrows, if healthy, has shown flashes. But it’s a lot of “ifs” for a team that’s used to certainty at the top of the rotation.
The rest of the Astros roster still has the bones of a contender. The lineup remains dangerous, and there’s enough talent in the bullpen to close out games. But in a loaded American League, where margins are razor-thin, a shaky rotation can be the difference between playing deep into October and watching from home.
Houston’s dynasty window may not be closed, but it’s definitely creaking. If this rotation can hold the line - or better yet, exceed expectations - the Astros could be right back in the mix. If not, 2026 could be another season of what-ifs in southeast Texas.