The Astros’ biggest issue in the Wild Card Series wasn’t a lack of power. It was everything that had to happen before and after the swing.
Houston led Major League Baseball with 226 home runs during the regular season, and that pop carried the offense for long stretches. Even so, 34% of those homers came with the bases empty, a rate that ranked 16th in baseball. That same dynamic followed them into October, where the power showed up but rarely with enough traffic on the bases to really change the game.
Houston hit four home runs in the postseason, but only one came with runners aboard: Nelson Velazquez’s two-run shot with Lucas Spence on first in the bottom of the fifth inning of Game 1. Outside of that, the Astros never found the big hit with people on base. They finished 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position, and over the course of the 18 innings in the Wild Card Series, they never managed to take a lead.
That is the problem with a lineup built so heavily around power. When the extra-base hits aren’t there, there isn’t much left to fall back on.
The league has increasingly chased offenses capable of blowing games open with one swing, but there are still teams that win with a different formula. Clubs like the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox have shown that “small ball” and a more complete approach can still work.
Chicago, in particular, showed a version that blended speed, plate discipline and timely power. Houston’s version, by contrast, never even got ahead on the scoreboard in the series.
The roster construction adds another layer to the issue. Jose Altuve is not being asked to run like he did at 36 years old.
Yordan Alvarez is not supposed to be the answer on the bases. Isaac Paredes has two stolen bases in 721 MLB games, Yainer Diaz has three in 499, and Christian Walker has about 27 stolen bases in 1,142 games, with only two since becoming an Astro in 2025.
Houston doesn’t need those players to be burners. It needs them to hit for extra bases, drive in runs and reach base consistently.
But the deeper concern is that the players who logged the most chances for the 2026 Astros were among the worst baserunners in baseball. Houston finished last in Baserunning Runs at -9, behind teams like the Los Angeles Angels and Athletics at -6, and the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets at -5.
The Astros were also the worst team in SB (2B) Advances vs Avg at -32. They finished seventh-worst in Holds, even though they were the seventh team with the most opportunities to turn singles into extra bases.
The chances were there. The value on the bases wasn’t.
Only four of the 16 qualified runners with at least 10 opportunities posted a positive Baserunning Runs mark, and only Jeremy Peña and Cam Smith finished above +1, both at +3.
Yordan’s -5 was hardly a surprise. Neither was an aging Altuve at -3, or Paredes, Walker and Christian Vazquez in negative territory. But Jake Meyers, Brice Matthews and LaMonte Wade Jr. also landed on the wrong side of the ledger, not because they lacked speed, but because they didn’t show the instincts or efficiency to turn defensive mistakes into extra bases.
Until Houston pairs its power with better baserunning, the same flaw will keep showing up in the biggest moments: too much waiting for one swing, not enough ability to manufacture runs when the long ball isn’t there.
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