The Houston Astros could be in for a busy offseason, but Tatsuya Imai’s situation looks a lot simpler than some of the other moving parts.
With Dana Brown gone and Joe Espada likely to follow, Houston is staring at a roster that could shift in several directions. Yordan Alvarez is expected to stay put, and the Astros should keep plenty of other core pieces, but Jeremy Pena might be traded and a few more players could be on the move after rough 2026 seasons.
Imai, though, appears headed toward the most straightforward call on the board. The pitcher Houston signed out of Japan has not delivered a strong season, has already been pushed to the bullpen, and now faces an opt-out decision on his $36 million deal.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan doesn’t see much mystery there.
“Since getting demoted to the bullpen at the end of July, Imai has pitched four times,” Passan writes. “He's not going to do better than the two years and $36 million Houston owes him. Will he opt out: No.”
That line matches the market reality around him. Imai would have a hard time finding anything close to two years and $36 million on the open market after this season, especially with teams across the league hunting for rotation help and his numbers working against him.
He owns a 5.20 ERA with 0.2 bWAR this season, and the split between his work as a starter and as a reliever tells the story even more clearly. In 15 starts, he posted a 5.83 ERA. In five bullpen appearances covering 14 innings, that number dropped to 2.57.
That relief work could give him some value, but it doesn’t change the bigger picture. No club is handing out starting-pitcher money for a reliever, and $36 million over two years is exactly that kind of commitment.
So while the Astros may have plenty to sort through once the offseason fully opens up, Passan’s read on Imai is the easy one: he stays put, because walking away from that contract would make no sense.
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