The Astros are back home with the same problem hanging over them: the bats still aren’t doing enough. After getting swept by the Rays, Houston opens a three-game set against the Royals at 75-75, and the pressure is on to break out of an offensive rut that has dragged on for 28 games.
That slide has been ugly by any measure. Since last August 14, Houston owns the worst on-base percentage in the American League at .292, a .265 BABIP and the second-lowest batting average in the league at .224.
The damage showed up again in Tampa Bay, where the Astros managed just eight runs across three games, or 2.7 per contest. Over the last 28 games, they’ve averaged 3.7 runs, which is still not enough for a team trying to climb out of this stretch.
Yordan Álvarez has landed in the middle of that downturn at a rough time for his Triple Crown chase. Over his last 109 plate appearances, he’s hit .250/.385/.432 with only three home runs and nine RBIs.
Even with those recent numbers, he remains a major factor in this matchup. Against the Royals this season, Álvarez has hit .500 with two home runs, six RBIs and only one strikeout in 14 plate appearances.
Kansas City hasn’t exactly been a comfortable opponent for Houston, even if the Royals have had their own issues this year. The Astros took two of three from them in June, winning 10-8 and 8-7 before being blanked 4-0 in the finale.
The Royals are sending right-hander Michael Wacha to the mound, and he’s been sharp. He owns a 3.25 ERA across 182 2/3 innings and has given up 24 home runs this season.
More recently, though, he’s been even better. Over his last seven starts, Wacha is 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in 44 1/3 innings and 36 strikeouts.
That run includes all of his August starts, and the numbers on his pitch mix are even more eye-catching: hitters have managed just .130 against his cutter, .140 against the changeup and .214 against the four-seam fastball. Add in the slider, and the batting average against that pitch sits at .133.
Wacha has also been working deep into games. In those seven starts since August, he has gone at least five innings every time and reached six innings or more in five of them. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of those outings.
Houston does have a few hitters with useful history against him. Álvarez is 2-for-7 with a double and a home run.
Christian Walker is 5-for-11 with two doubles and a home run. Christian Vázquez has gone 6-for-13.
Isaac Paredes, who is 0-for-7 against the Royals this year, is 3-for-12 against Wacha with a double, a home run and three walks. Jeremy Peña is 2-for-5 with a walk.
That kind of past success will matter because Houston needs more from the rest of the lineup, too. Peña, Cam Smith and Daulton Varsho are among the hitters who have struggled lately. Since August 14, Peña has a .610 OPS, while Smith is batting .173 and Varsho .198.
Wacha has also had Houston’s number in recent meetings. In his last three appearances against the Astros, he is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, allowing just 12 hits and two earned runs.
The Astros will also need support for Hunter Brown, who has been knocked around in his last five outings. He is 1-2 with an 8.82 ERA in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch, though his most recent work against Kansas City has looked stronger. The last time he faced the Royals at home, on August 24, 2024, he allowed only two hits and two unearned runs over six innings.
Before a five-inning start in which he gave up seven hits and five runs, four earned, Brown had put together a 2.86 ERA over five starts since August 11, striking out 30 and walking 14 in 28 1/3 innings. The walks have been part of the story, but in his last three appearances he has racked up 24 strikeouts against just three walks in 17 2/3 innings.
Houston has also been willing to let him work, with Brown getting 90 or more pitches in those outings. He has adjusted his pitch mix, too, and the result has been a 52% ground-ball rate from opponents.
Brown and one of the league’s more reliable bullpens give Houston a path here. But if the offense stays stuck in place, the Astros’ recent troubles at the plate could start pushing them away from the top of the division and closer to the wrong side of the October race.
In Other News...
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Roddery Munoz, Kai-Wei Teng and Jose Santos have all put together encouraging work in the minors, which is why the question has become less about patience and more about timing. Houston has options if it wants to start reshaping the relief mix, but with the race still tight, the bigger issue is whether the Astros can afford to keep running out the same group while hoping the results change. [Read more 🡒]
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Astros Still Face One Stretch Run Threat Despite Edge Over Texas
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Still, the division race is not the only piece worth watching. Seattle has the easiest remaining schedule in the group, even if the Mariners sit five games back, and the White Sox and Guardians are also sorting out playoff positioning with their own differing paths ahead. For Houston, the benefit of a softer finish only matters if the Astros avoid giving those clubs any opening. [Read more 🡒]