Cam Smith’s surface numbers can fool you into thinking the arrow is pointing up. The home run total has jumped from 2025 to 2026, and on a quick glance that looks like a step forward.
But the fuller picture tells a much flatter story.
Using the more familiar metrics - OPS+, rOBA, wOBA and wRC+ - Smith’s two seasons line up almost identically when measured after he played the exact same number of games in each year. OPS+ and wRC+ are especially telling here because they are both built to sit around 100 as league average, and Smith remains well below that mark as an offensive player.
wOBA and rOBA also paint the same picture. The conclusion is hard to miss: Smith has been essentially the same hitter in terms of value from one season to the next. He may finish with close to 20 home runs and rack up more runs and RBI than he did a year ago, but the actual production has not moved much.
That raises the bigger question: is this just who Cam Smith is, or did something happen to slow his growth?
The answer, at least from this view, points straight back to the Astros and the decision to rush him to the majors. Dana Brown has taken plenty of heat, but the biggest call was pushing Smith beyond Double-A and Triple-A before he was ready. It might have been inevitable, but it also may have stalled his development.
If Smith had followed a more normal path, he would likely be making his big league debut around now, with 2027 shaping up as his first full season. Instead, the Astros may have gotten him early and paid for it in lost development time.
He had only 115 minor league at-bats, and just 19 of those came at Double-A. That’s not much runway at all. The work of learning, failing, adjusting and earning the next level never really happened.
So while no one can say with absolute certainty that rushing Cam Smith to the majors is the only reason he hasn’t taken a real step forward, it’s easy to argue it was the biggest one. If he ends up being the player he is right now, the Astros’ decision to accelerate him will be the central reason why.
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Astros Have A September Roster Decision Fans Should Watch Closely
September always brings a little roster maneuvering, and for the Astros, the move to a 28-man club on Sept. 1 opens the door to add some help for the final month. The front office has a few interesting names to consider from Triple-A, where Miguel Ullola, Cavan Biggio and Trenton Brooks have all put together strong stretches that could make them useful in different ways.
Ullola gives Houston another pitching option, while Biggio and Brooks bring the kind of versatility that can matter when depth gets thin and matchups start dictating decisions. With the stretch run ahead and every game carrying extra weight, the Astros will have to decide which minor league performers are most ready to translate that recent production into a useful September role. [Read more 🡒]
Astros September Push Could Come Down To One Carlos Correa Update
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Correa is the name that hangs over the month most prominently, because his status still carries some uncertainty as he moves toward a scheduled medical checkup tied to his ankle surgery. For an Astros team trying to protect a division lead while navigating a demanding schedule, any update on his availability could shape how the final month unfolds. The bigger picture is straightforward enough: Houston has put itself in position, but September will say a lot about whether that position holds. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Got An Unlikely Offensive Boost They May Really Need
Houston kept its grip on the AL West by getting unexpected offense in a 6-3 win over the White Sox, with Nelson Velzquez and Cam Smith delivering the kind of timely hits that can change the tone of a game. Peter Lambert gave the Astros a workable start, lasting 4 2/3 innings while allowing three runs and striking out six, and the lineup did enough damage to make sure Chicago never fully got back into it.
Velzquez provided the biggest swing of the night with a go-ahead two-run homer in the fourth, a jolt that helped turn a close game in Houstons favor. Smith then added a two-run double in the next inning to widen the gap, a useful reminder for the Astros that production can come from places they may not have been counting on as the season pushes deeper into its stretch run. [Read more 🡒]