The Houston Astros have reached the point where there’s no room for a misstep. Sitting at 77-79 and heading into a two-game set with the eliminated Seattle Mariners, they need to win the AL West if they want to play their way into the postseason.
That pressure only grows because the Texas Rangers keep matching the pace. After sweeping the Atlanta Braves, Houston is now chasing a Rangers club that has won three straight series and sits at 78-78. Texas opens a three-game series against the New York Mets, so the Astros can’t afford to fall behind while the division race keeps tightening.
Houston is sending Cristian Javier out to start the series away from Daikin Park, and the timing could hardly be more important. The Astros need the version of Javier that looked closest to his 2022 form, when he posted a 3.7 WAR and a 2.54 ERA.
This season has been a grind for Javier. He’s logged a 5.31 ERA across 16 games and 11 starts, with injury part of the story.
But September has offered a better version of him. In three starts this month, he has worked past the fifth inning every time and owns a 2.20 ERA over 16.1 innings.
His most recent outing came against the Kansas City Royals, and even in that one he allowed only two earned runs. If Javier can keep striking batters out early and stay in control of the zone, Houston’s offense will have to carry the rest, just like it did during the 2022 run that ended with a trip to the World Series.
There’s also the Mariners matchup itself to consider. Javier has not started against Seattle since 2023, and that year the Mariners handled him well. In two starts against them, he posted a 4.63 ERA over 11.2 innings, giving up six earned runs with five walks and 14 strikeouts.
That’s the clearest sign of what Houston needs to avoid: the free passes. Javier didn’t allow a home run to Seattle, but the walks hurt him then, and they’ve been a problem at times this year too. If he keeps the ball in the zone, the Astros have a much better shot at keeping their playoff hopes alive.
In Other News...
Jim Crane May Be Running Out Of Time To Reset Astros
The Astros slide has reached a point where even a team built to absorb turbulence can feel the pressure. After being swept by the Braves, Houston is staring up in both the AL West and the wild card race, a reminder that the gap between contender and fading power can close quickly when a roster starts to age and the wins stop piling up.
Reports that the club could move on from Joe Espada and Dana Brown suggest Jim Crane may be considering a broader reset rather than a quick fix. Since the 2022 World Series title, the Astros have been trying to balance an aging core with the demands of another run, and the next decision points could determine whether this is just a rough stretch or the start of a deeper overhaul. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Are Down To One Last Lineup Decision That Could Save Them
The Astros have spent most of September searching for any version of their offense that can hold up over a full night, and the results have been hard to ignore. They have dropped 11 of 19 and too often have been stuck in the kind of low-scoring games that leave little margin for error, which is why the clubs final six games have started to feel like a last chance to find a workable lineup before the season closes.
One possible answer is a reshuffle built around the players who have looked best most recently, with Isaac Paredes, Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve and Joey Loperfido all candidates to occupy more important spots. It is not a full reset, but it does reflect where the Astros are now: at the point where even a small change in batting order could matter, and where the next few games may decide whether the team can squeeze a little more out of an offense that has been too quiet for too long. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Catching Prospect Is Forcing A Bigger Conversation Than Expected
Jason Schiavone has turned a quiet draft pick into one of the more intriguing names in the Astros system. Selected in 2024, the catcher spent his first pro season moving through three minor league levels and made an uncommon kind of noise, finishing with 32 home runs and 32 stolen bases. For a position that usually values steadiness over thunder, that kind of production immediately pushes a player into a different conversation.
Jeff Bagwell has already pointed to the traits that make Schiavone hard to ignore, praising the power, on-base ability and defensive work that give him a real major league look. The strikeout rate is part of the equation, of course, and its the reason the read on him is still developing, but his blend of skills has made him more than just a novelty. For Houston, the question now is less about whether Schiavone belongs on the radar and more about how soon that radar starts pointing toward the big leagues. [Read more 🡒]