Dustin May’s market is starting to take shape, and the Houston Astros are right in the mix.
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the free-agent right-hander is drawing interest from the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres and Astros after going 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts for the Cardinals and Brewers in 2026. May reached free agency after declining his mutual option with Milwaukee following his stint in the bullpen that helped the club win the World Series, and he’s now searching for a multi-year deal.
On the surface, that ERA doesn’t jump off the page next to the numbers Houston got from its rotation this season. Hunter Brown finished at 3.19 in 107 ⅓ innings, Hayden Wesneski posted a 3.25 ERA in 61 innings, and Peter Lambert logged a 3.82 mark across 155 ⅔ innings. But May’s season looks a lot better once you dig underneath the headline number.
His 3.63 FIP and 3.96 xFIP were his best combined marks in any of the three seasons in which he has thrown at least 50 innings - 2020, 2025 and 2026. The rough edges were real, but they were also concentrated. Four starts did most of the damage, including his debut, when he gave up 13 earned runs over 7 ⅓ innings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers.
Outside of that stretch, the profile was much steadier. In his other 27 starts, May had 16 outings of at least five innings with three earned runs or fewer allowed. Twelve of those were even cleaner, with two runs or fewer, and that run included a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts in a 3-0 Cardinals win over the Padres on June 15 at Busch Stadium III.
There was still a warning sign after he moved to Milwaukee. His HR/FB rate climbed from 6.3% to 17.1%, and while he nudged his strikeout rate up, the harder contact pushed his xERA from 3.94 to 6.06. That downturn likely played a role in his postseason move to the bullpen.
Even with that, May remains an appealing name for a rotation looking for help. He has shown he can work through injury issues and still pile up innings, throwing 132 ⅓ in 2025 and 145 ⅔ this year while making 31 starts.
For Houston, the fit is easy to see. If Brown and Lambert are the top two, May could slot in as a third starter and help stabilize a group that leaned on secondary arms like Tatsuya Imai, Kai-Wei Teng and Cristian Javier. That trio combined for 37 starts, 152 ⅓ innings and a 5.73 ERA.
May also brings some real pitch-shaping upside. He works with a six-pitch mix, his cutter improved from -4 Run Value to +6 year over year, his velocity ticked up and put his sinker in the 50th percentile, and he finished in the 55th percentile in K% and BB%, a notable jump from last season’s 38th and 22nd percentiles.
He’s not the Astros’ top choice, but at an estimated $15 million AAV, he looks like the kind of attainable upside play that could make sense if Houston wants to shop in the tier below the biggest free-agent prices.
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