Bryan Abreu has been one of the most dependable arms in the Astros bullpen for six years, but Houston may already have the pitcher who can take his place.
Abreu, now 29, is set to hit free agency, and the Astros would obviously like to keep him around. Even in a season that hasn’t matched his peak years, pairing him with Josh Hader still gives Houston a late-game combo that’s tough to find anywhere else. But the Astros may not need to chase that setup again if AJ Blubaugh keeps trending the way he has.
Blubaugh has turned from starter to reliever and quickly become a real weapon for Houston. He owns a 3.17 ERA over 82 and 1/3 innings this season, and since the start of June, he has logged 45.2 innings with a 2.17 ERA. The right-hander also looks built for the role Abreu has handled for so long: he’s another righty working ahead of a left-handed closer like Hader.
The numbers in the eighth inning are especially encouraging. Blubaugh has posted a 1.47 ERA in 18 and 2/3 innings in that spot this year.
That’s a small sample compared with the rest of his work, but among the 46 relievers with at least 18 innings pitched in the eighth this season, that ERA ranks seventh. He has also limited opponents to a .396 OPS in situations Baseball Reference classifies as high leverage.
That kind of rise matters because Abreu is headed into the kind of free agency that usually brings a strong market. Relievers can be unpredictable from year to year, but Abreu has been steady enough that teams looking for late-inning help will be lining up with offers.
The financial side also points in Blubaugh’s direction. Owner Jim Crane has said in the past that he would go over the luxury tax for the right situation, but Houston is not over the tax in 2026.
With a new GM coming in, it does not seem likely the 2027 Astros, as currently constructed, would get that same kind of leeway. Re-signing Abreu might not push them over by itself, but it would make the rest of the roster puzzle harder, especially with Hader already earning $19 million per year.
That’s why Blubaugh’s emergence changes the equation. He has shown he can be effective, he has handled high-leverage spots, and he looks like a natural fit for the setup role in 2027. For Houston, that makes the decision on Abreu a lot less complicated.
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