The Houston Astros are staring at a familiar problem with a fresh twist: they need a legitimate No. 2 starter behind Hunter Brown, but the wallet’s looking a little thin. Nate Pearson and Ryan "Daejon Jesus" Weiss have arms, sure, but if the Astros are serious about contending in 2026, they need more than upside and bullpen depth.
They need a proven starter. And those don’t come cheap.
Enter Zac Gallen - at least in theory.
Gallen’s name keeps surfacing as a potential fit for Houston, and on paper, it makes a lot of sense. He’s got the résumé, the stuff, and the experience to slot in right behind Brown and stabilize a rotation that’s seen better days. But here’s the catch: the Astros’ payroll situation makes this more dream than reality right now.
Let’s break it down.
According to Spotrac, Houston is sitting about $27 million below the first luxury tax threshold of $244 million. That might sound like room to maneuver, but in practice, it’s not all available for a splashy move.
Teams typically hold back a portion of that space for in-season flexibility - think trade deadline reinforcements or injury replacements. On top of that, Houston still has other roster holes to patch beyond the rotation.
Last season, the Astros opened with a $220 million payroll and crept over the tax line by season’s end, finishing at $244 million. That made them a luxury tax offender - and if they go over again, the penalties get steeper. Ownership has made it clear they’d rather not be repeat offenders, which means any major addition has to fit within a very tight financial box.
That’s where the Gallen conversation starts to unravel.
Former GM Jim Bowden has repeatedly linked Gallen to Houston this offseason, projecting a five-year, $135 million deal. That’s $27 million annually - basically the full amount of Houston’s pre-tax threshold space. If they gave Gallen that deal, there’d be no room left to address other needs, including position player depth, which is already a concern.
And that $135 million projection? It might already be outdated.
Since Bowden made that call, Dylan Cease landed a deal that blew past expectations by about $30 million, and Merrill Kelly - Gallen’s former teammate in Arizona - secured $20 million per year when most pegged him closer to $15 million. In today’s pitching market, Gallen’s price tag may be climbing fast, and $135 million could end up being the floor, not the ceiling.
So unless something gives - like a team stepping in to absorb most of Christian Walker’s salary, or Houston finding a trade partner for Jesus Sanchez - the math just doesn’t work. The Astros don’t have the financial flexibility to go big on Gallen, and they don’t have the trade chips to go after a cost-controlled starter like Freddy Peralta or Joe Ryan.
That leaves them in a tough spot. The market isn’t offering many top-of-the-rotation arms on a discount, and the Astros aren’t in a position to overpay. It’s the kind of scenario where a team ends up settling - not because they want to, but because they have to.
And that’s the real cost here. Not just missing out on Gallen, but missing out on the kind of arm that could make the difference between a playoff push and a postseason run.