The Astros are still one of the league’s better home run teams, but the power has cooled in a way that could matter once October arrives.
Through the end of July, Houston was averaging 1.39 home runs per game. Since then, that number has slid to 1.03, with just one game of more than two home runs since the start of August. Over that span, the Astros’ home run pace would sit in the bottom six in the majors.
That drop matters because the connection between power and wins is hard to miss. In Houston’s losses this season, the club has averaged 0.94 home runs per game. In its wins, that number jumps to 1.67.
Yordan Alvarez is a major reason the team’s power has come down. Since the beginning of August, he has hit two home runs, or one every 51.0 at bats. During the first four months of the season, he was on a much hotter run, leaving the yard once every 11.3 at bats.
There is a little offset in the underlying numbers. Alvarez’s batting average on balls in play was .332 in the first four months, then rose to .342 in August and September.
Even so, the reduced power has trimmed his overall production. Over his last 30 games, Alvarez has a .874 OPS, which is still strong, but well below the 1.077 OPS he posted in the first four months of 2026.
Houston’s home run profile has also been a little strange when it comes to traffic on the bases. The Astros have generated 0.508 runners on base per home run, with 185 home runs and 279 RBI on those homers. The major league average is .584 runners on per home runs.
On the pitching side, Astros opponents have averaged .650 runners on base per homer. That could be the product of bad luck, though it may also point to weaker pitching out of the stretch.
The source of the issue isn’t clear, and the team’s offense has not consistently hit as many home runs with runners on base as the rest of the league. That could still swing by the end of the year.
For now, the bigger picture is simple: Houston’s power dip has lined up with Alvarez’s slowdown, even as the club has kept winning by leaning more on its starting pitching. If the Astros get into the postseason, they’ll want that old home run punch back - the kind that can pile up runs and force pitchers out of the game early.
In Other News...
Astros Bullpen Suddenly Has A Late-Inning Problem At The Worst Time
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Houston now has to lean more heavily on the rest of its relief group, with AJ Blubaugh and Bennett Sousa among the pitchers expected to take on a bigger share of the load. Okert is projected to be out until at least Sept. 16, leaving the Astros to patch together some of the innings that often decide close games. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Bullpen Shuffle Could Say A Lot About This Road Trip
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Ullola is back in the majors after last pitching on Aug. 18, while Teng heads back down after struggling in recent appearances. Houstons bullpen has been a moving target on this road trip, and with the magic number down to 17, the next few decisions may say plenty about how the Astros plan to manage both the standings and the workload that comes with them. [Read more 🡒]
Jeremy Pea's Slump Is Becoming A Real Astros Problem
Jeremy Pena looked like he had turned a corner in July, when he was driving the ball, getting on base and giving the Astros the kind of spark they need near the top of the lineup. He finished that month batting .381 with a .412 on-base percentage and a 1.110 OPS, and he added six home runs while looking like one of Houstons most dangerous hitters.
Since Aug. 3, though, the picture has changed sharply. Pena has batted .161 over 29 games, and the strikeouts have climbed as his overall production has faded, right as Houstons run output has also taken a step back. For a club that leans on his bat to help set the tone, the slump has become more than a rough stretch - it is starting to show up in the offense around him. [Read more 🡒]