The Astros keep finding a way to make the same point over and over: you never quite know which version of this team is going to show up.
That was on display again Sunday, when Houston finished off a series win over the previously red-hot Tampa Bay Rays. It came after a weekend that had already tilted toward disaster.
The Astros dropped the opener, then were staring at a sweep in the middle game while trailing 7-2 around the fourth inning on Saturday. Instead, they clawed all the way back to tie it at 8-8, and when the Rays chose to pitch to Yordan Alvarez, he made them pay with a walk-off in the ninth.
Sunday brought a different kind of win. Houston kept it tight, got another strong outing from Peter Lambert, pieced together 3.1 innings of scoreless relief, and got home runs from Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.
One odd little wrinkle from Saturday: Walker rubbed Yordan’s bat all over himself after the game, then went out and hit the opposite-field homer while Alvarez went 0 for 4. Coincidence?
That’s the whole Astros experience right now. They’re not exactly charging back toward .500 and contention so much as slowly oozing their way there. The inconsistency is the story.
When Houston lost to the Twins on May 20, the club was 20-31, six games out in the AL West and five back in the Wild Card race. A four-game winning streak followed immediately, but since then it’s been a steady pattern of one step forward, one step back.
The Astros have won six of their last seven series and haven’t swept any of them. That sounds decent on paper, but the road has been bumpy, especially because the starting pitching has been all over the place.
The bullpen, by contrast, has been excellent and has helped the team win nine of its last 15 games.
The rotation is where the uncertainty starts. Outside of Peter Lambert, every game seems to begin with the same question: what kind of start are they getting today?
Hunter Brown has been back for four starts, and none of them have looked the same. He opened with a standard Hunter Brown outing - 5.2 innings, one run allowed - then followed it with three innings and one run, then six innings with three runs, two earned.
His last time out was the rough one: seven runs, six earned, over four innings in a game that ended up being rescued by Yordan’s late heroics. Which version comes next?
Spencer Arrighetti has been just as unpredictable. After a huge May that earned him AL Pitcher of the Month honors, he stumbled through June with an 0-3 record and a 9.00 ERA in five troubling starts.
He bounced back in his lone July outing, going six innings and allowing one run against the Rays. Houston will take that version in a heartbeat.
Tatsuya Imai’s last four starts have gone 0.2 IP/5 runs, 6 IP/3 runs, 6 IP/0 runs, and 1.1 IP/5 runs. Mike Burrows opened June by giving up 16 runs, 13 earned, in 15 innings over his first three starts, then had a reset inning out of the bullpen before turning in a good six-inning, one-run start and then a so-so five-inning, four-run outing.
Kai-Wei Teng posted an 8.83 ERA over four starts, then followed with a sharp six innings and one run before a 3.2-inning, five-run, four-earned start. He was then sent down to the minors but shifted to the IL.
That’s why Houston has been stuck in this strange holding pattern. In the last six weeks, the Astros haven’t lost more than two straight, but they also haven’t won more than three in a row. The starting staff outside Lambert keeps making it hard to build momentum, because even stringing together two quality starts has been a challenge.
The offense has been just as erratic. Over the last couple of weeks, Houston has pulled off four big comeback wins - 9-7 over Toronto, 8-6 and 7-5 over Detroit, and 10-8 over Tampa Bay. But the same lineup has also been held to two runs or fewer in seven of its last 15 games.
There are reasons for that swingy production. Jeremy Pena’s IL stint has mattered, because the Astros are simply a better team with him in the lineup.
He starts rallies and helps set the table for Yordan and the rest of the run producers. Jose Altuve’s production has also fallen off hard.
His big Saturday game stands out as the exception, not the rule, because since April 12 he is hitting .208 with a .269 on-base percentage and a .615 OPS, which the source notes is probably the worst stretch of his career over a 50-plus-game span.
Christian Walker has also cooled off. Over his last 55 games, he is hitting .190 with a .258 OBP and a .662 OPS. The 12 home runs and 31 RBIs have helped, but a bat like that in the middle of the order is still a problem.
Then there’s the outfield, which has been a mess offensively. Taylor Trammell has been the exception, but the rest of the group has not done much at the plate.
Cam Smith is hitting .221 with a .293 OBP and a .672 OPS. Joey Loperfido is at .216/.314/.647.
Jake Meyers sits at .206/.264/.580. Brice Matthews is at .191/.244/.564.
Loperfido and Meyers are in the minors because of it. Cameos from Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole and Dustin Harris have been poor as well.
So yes, the Astros can still explode for a comeback win. They can also disappear offensively for long stretches. That’s the problem in a nutshell.
Through it all, the bullpen has been the one steady thing, and it has been vital in keeping the team afloat. If Houston is going to take another step in its push for a playoff spot, it needs more from the rotation first. Better offense would help, but the starting pitching remains the biggest swing factor on this roster.
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