The Houston Astros have made a habit of looking sharp when the opponent is strong, then stumbling when the matchup should be easier. That split has become the kind of flaw that can swallow a season, and in the AL West race it may end up mattering most.
At the start of September, Houston owned the league’s best record against teams above .500 at 28-15. Since September 5, though, the Astros have gone 9-10 and slipped to third at 37-25 in those games.
Even with that dip, they still rank among the three best teams in baseball against winning clubs. The bigger issue is the other side of the ledger: against teams below .500, Houston is just 39-51.
That imbalance has shown up everywhere. The Astros are not simply losing those games - they are letting series slip away. Since the beginning of August, they have dropped five of six series against sub-.500 opponents, going 1-2 against the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.
The offense has been especially uneven in those matchups. Against teams below .500, Houston carries a .235 batting average, which is third-worst in the league, along with a .388 slugging percentage, the fifth-lowest mark. The club is also seventh-worst in runs per game at 4.4 in those contests.
The inconsistency showed up again early this week against the Royals. Houston opened with a 4-2 win last Tuesday, then dropped Wednesday’s game 5-2.
In the opener, Jeremy Peña homered twice and Yordan Álvarez added his 39th home run of the season to help the Astros beat Michael Wacha. But the rest of the lineup disappeared after that.
Peña is 6-for-8 and Yordan is 2-for-6, and together they have accounted for 8-for-14 and four of Houston’s six runs across the first two games. The rest of the offense has gone 4-for-41 with 10 of the team’s 12 strikeouts entering Thursday’s finale.
Peña and Álvarez have also been the most dependable bats against losing teams overall. Álvarez owns a 180 OPS+ in those games, while Peña sits at 121.
Álvarez has 23 home runs and 60 RBIs in those matchups. Isaac Paredes follows with 50 RBIs, then Christian Walker with 37 and Cam Smith with 32, though both Walker and Smith have been erratic and sit below 80 OPS+.
Daulton Varsho has been the coldest of the group, hitting just .167/.241/.236 with a 31 OPS+ against the kind of teams Houston should be taking advantage of.
The pitching staff has not provided much stability either. Houston’s staff ERA sits at 4.91, fourth-worst in the league, and the club’s .433 winning percentage against below-.500 teams trails only the Athletics (.390) and Angels (.394).
Several arms have struggled in that split. Mike Burrows is 2-8 with a 6.88 ERA, and those problems include 17 home runs allowed and a .895 OPS against below-.500 opponents.
Spencer Arrighetti finished his Houston season at 1-4 with a 6.81 ERA. Tatsuya Imai went 4-3 with a 6.22 ERA, Kai-Wei Teng was 1-5 with a 6.13 ERA, Cristian Javier posted a 1-5 record and 5.85 ERA, Peter Lambert went 2-5 with a 4.44 ERA, and Brayan Abreu also endured rough stretches at 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA.
A few pitchers have held up much better. Hunter Brown is the lone rotation arm listed with real consistency, going 2-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 11 starts and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Josh Hader has been dominant in relief at 3-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 16 saves and 11.1 strikeouts per nine. Steven Okert has gone 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 44 relief appearances, and AJ Blubaugh has pitched to a 4-2 record and 3.23 ERA.
Houston’s remaining path also doesn’t offer much room for error. The Athletics and Mariners combine for 42 games below .500, and Seattle’s slide has been one of the season’s bigger surprises. The Astros have already lost 1-2 in each of their last two series against those clubs, and if they can’t handle that stretch, they could lose the division pennant and perhaps even Wild Card qualification.
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Astros Suddenly Face A Brutal Final Stretch In AL West Race
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Now the schedule is tilting toward urgency. Houston wraps up its home slate against Atlanta before heading into a final six-game road finish entirely against AL West opponents, a stretch that leaves very little room for error and even less for recovery time. For a club that has spent much of the season trying to stay in reach, the closing weeks have suddenly become a test of whether there is still enough left to make a push, or whether the final stand arrives before the Astros can get back on level ground. [Read more 🡒]