The Astros keep running into the same problem in the kind of spot that usually decides close games: getting the runner home from third with fewer than two outs.
It happened again over the last two games, and it’s been a season-long issue. Saturday brought one of the clearest examples.
Jeremy Pena opened the third inning with a leadoff triple, giving Houston a runner on third with nobody out. Yordan Alvarez followed by grounding out to the second baseman, and Pena stayed put at third.
Isaac Paredes later cashed Pena in with a one-out single, leaving the Astros 1-for-2 in that situation.
The next game offered another missed chance, this time with Jose Altuve in the box. Altuve came up with one out and the bases loaded while Houston held a 1-0 lead.
After a pitching change, he fell behind 0-2 and then whiffed badly on an outside pitch. It was another tough result for a hitter who has been one of the least effective in baseball this season at bringing in a runner from third with less than two outs.
Among the 173 hitters who have gone to the plate at least 23 times in those spots this season, Altuve’s 30.4% conversion rate is fifth worst in baseball. That’s a sharp drop from what he has done over the course of his career.
In 16 seasons, his career rate in those situations is 56.7%, which is better than the league average of 50.6%. He was also strong there last season, going 18-for-32 for a 56.3% mark.
During his first seven seasons, including his MVP year, he converted those chances 64.8% of the time, going 125-for-193.
The trouble isn’t just Altuve. As a team, the Astros are third worst in baseball at getting the runner in from third with less than two outs.
Only the Royals and the Reds have been worse. Houston has scored in those situations 47.0% of the time, compared with a league average of 51.2% in 2026.
That gap may not look huge at first glance, but over the course of a season it adds up. With those situations coming up 350 times, it could mean 14 fewer runs than an average team.
The Rangers, who are chasing Houston, have been much better in that area. Texas has a 54.0% conversion rate, the second-best mark in the American League.
With at least 10 more chances likely over the final six games, the Astros’ recent trend leaves them vulnerable in a part of the game that can swing the AL West race. If things end up tight in the standings, these missed opportunities could loom large.
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Jeff Bagwell has already singled out Schiavones power, on-base ability and defensive skills, and those are the kinds of traits that can make a catching prospect impossible to ignore. The strikeout rate is still part of the picture, but when a minor league catcher does something no one has done since 1981, the Astros have to think bigger about where he fits and how quickly he could matter at the major league level. [Read more 🡒]