Astros Prospect Luis Baez Still Has Power-But Plate Discipline May Be His Biggest Obstacle Yet
The road from top prospect to major league contributor is never a straight line. For some, it’s a sprint.
For others, it’s a grind. And for Houston Astros outfielder Luis Baez, that grind is starting to look like a steeper climb than many anticipated when he signed for $1.3 million back in 2022.
At the time, Baez was seen as one of the more exciting international signings in the class-a raw, powerful bat with the kind of pop that made scouts dream of a future in the heart of a big-league lineup. Early returns backed up the hype.
He tore through the lower levels of the minors, showcasing the kind of raw strength that turns heads. But as the competition got tougher and the pitching more refined, cracks began to show in Baez’s offensive game.
Now 22 years old, Baez finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to Houston’s top 30 prospects list, according to Baseball America. That doesn’t mean the book is closed-but it does mean the margin for error is shrinking.
The Power Is Real-But So Are the Red Flags
Let’s start with the good: Baez still has legitimate power. That hasn’t gone anywhere.
When he connects, the ball jumps off his bat with authority. Scouts and evaluators still believe that if he can tighten up his approach, the power could carry him into a big-league role.
And it’s not just the raw strength-his contact skills within the strike zone have been praised as well. When he swings at the right pitches, he can do damage.
But here’s the issue: he’s not swinging at the right pitches often enough.
Baez’s chase rate-how often he swings at pitches outside the strike zone-sits at 34.2%. That’s a big number, and not in a good way.
In the minors, that kind of approach can get you into trouble quickly. Pitchers learn fast, and if they know a hitter is going to chase, they stop giving him anything to hit.
That’s what seems to be happening with Baez. He’s going up there hacking, and pitchers are taking advantage.
Can the Approach Be Fixed?
Adjusting a hitter’s approach isn’t as simple as flipping a switch. Swing decisions happen in fractions of a second, and for many players, those instincts are deeply ingrained. That’s the challenge Baez now faces: learning to trust his eyes, lay off borderline pitches, and wait for something he can drive.
It’s not impossible. Plenty of players have reshaped their approach and turned their careers around.
But it takes time, coaching, and a willingness to change. The Astros are known for their player development infrastructure, and Baez still has youth on his side.
At 22, there’s room to grow-but the clock is ticking.
The Bottom Line
Luis Baez isn’t a lost cause-not by a long shot. His power is still tantalizing, and his ability to make contact in the zone gives him a foundation to build on. But unless he can rein in his swing decisions and start laying off pitches outside the strike zone, that power may never fully translate at the highest level.
For now, Baez remains a name to keep an eye on-not because he’s knocking on the door of the majors, but because he’s at a crossroads. If he can adjust, there’s still a path forward. If not, he risks becoming another cautionary tale in the long list of prospects who had the tools but couldn’t quite put it all together.