The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have shown the Astros a model they can’t afford to shrug off.
Both clubs are still standing with a shot at the World Series, and both got there by leaning into a style that doesn’t depend on simply outspending everybody else. That’s the core of the lesson for Houston, especially after another season that exposed how thin the margin can be when the lineup is built around power and little else.
The numbers tell part of the story. Houston’s 2026 payroll sat at about $210.36 million, the 10th-highest in MLB.
Milwaukee checked in at $146.58 million, 14th, while Tampa Bay was down at $79.34 million, 24th. Together, the Brewers and Rays spent $194.8 million less than the Astros.
And yet both teams led their leagues during the regular season.
That is what makes them so hard to ignore. The Brewers and Rays have gotten here by winning in ways that travel well in October: contact, speed, pressure on defenses, and enough pitching and defense to keep games on their terms.
They don’t just wait for the three true outcomes to break in their favor. They manufacture runs in other ways, too.
This postseason has already flashed that identity. Milwaukee has gotten important home runs from Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, among others. Tampa Bay has had big swings from Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Victor Mesa Jr. - to practically eliminate the New York Yankees - and Yandy Diaz on the way to the World Series.
But the bigger edge for both teams has been the way they put the rest of the game under pressure. They’ve created offense through contact and speed, then backed it up with excellent pitching and defense. The source of that success shows up in the regular-season numbers, too: both clubs finished with a .258 batting average, led their leagues in on-base percentage, and were among the best defensive teams behind only the Chicago Cubs.
Tampa Bay also had the hitters who struck out the least, at 18.8%. Milwaukee, meanwhile, finished 29th with 154 home runs but still led the Majors with a .316 BABIP. Different routes, same result: constant pressure.
That is a world away from the Astros’ 2026 team.
Houston’s offense was built to live on power, and when that power was muted by the Chicago White Sox pitchers, the whole thing came apart. The Astros had no real fallback plan when the home runs weren’t carrying the night.
Three of the four homers they hit in the Wild Card series came with the bases empty, and 34% of their home runs during the regular season were solo shots. Even when the bats did what they were supposed to do, they often weren’t enough to produce real damage.
The roster construction left other problems exposed, too. The starting rotation was a mess, the bullpen eventually got worn down by an unsustainable workload, and the defense never really provided the kind of support needed to cover those flaws.
Joe Espada is an easy target, but the larger issue runs deeper than the dugout. Managers can only work with the roster and the front office plan handed to them, and the 2026 Astros were assembled to survive on power first.
That same style can look overwhelming when everything clicks. It can also disappear fast.
It is worth remembering where Houston once stood, because the franchise’s golden run was built on something far sturdier than just payroll. From 2017 through 2023, the Astros made seven straight American League Championship Series, reached four World Series and won two titles. That stretch gave fans years of October baseball to remember, and plenty of specific nights still stand out.
On October 20, 2017, Justin Verlander kept the season alive by leading Houston to a 7-1 win over the Yankees in Game 6 of the ALCS. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowed five hits and struck out eight, while Jose Altuve delivered a key home run. The Astros then won Game 7 to take the pennant.
On October 20, 2021, Framber Valdez dominated Boston in a 9-1 win that gave Houston a 3-2 lead and moved the club within one victory of the World Series. The Astros finished the job in Game 6 with a 5-0 win, though they later lost the Fall Classic to Atlanta.
On October 20, 2022, Alex Bregman supplied the difference with a three-run homer in the third inning and Houston beat the Yankees 3-2 in Game 2 of the ALCS. The Astros swept New York, claimed the pennant and then beat the Philadelphia Phillies in six games to win the World Series.
That was the blueprint when everything was humming: pitching, defense, timely offense and enough versatility to survive October’s stress tests.
The Rays and Brewers are showing a version of that blueprint now. The Astros, for all their resources, are still trying to prove they can win without being so dependent on the long ball. Money matters, but October keeps reminding everyone it is not the whole equation.
In Other News...
Astros GM Search Is Starting To Hint At One Big Direction
The Astros search for a new general manager is moving along with a familiar in-house feel. After Dana Browns departure in late August, Houston has been working through its options, and owner Jim Crane has made clear the club is not limiting itself to candidates who have already run a baseball operations department. That openness matters, because it suggests the front office is willing to think a little differently about who could guide the organization next.
At least some of the early interviews have come from within the building, with assistant general managers Gavin Dickey and Charles Cook among those in the mix. It remains to be seen whether that internal presence ultimately carries the day or whether the Astros widen the search further, but the timeline is firm enough to keep the process moving. The club would like to have its next GM in place before the end of the World Series, which gives this search a little more urgency than a typical offseason hiring cycle. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Manager Search Just Took A Turn Angels Fans Would Hate
With Joe Espada out after the 2026 season, Houstons next step is expected to come with a new general manager who will have a major say in the dugout hire. That has turned the Astros managerial search into one of the more closely watched offshoots of the offseason, especially with the club looking to reset after a change at the top.
Among the names being discussed, Albert Pujols has surfaced as a possible candidate, which is enough to get rival teams paying attention. There has not been any report of a formal offer or even close negotiations, but the possibility alone has already drawn interest from around the league, including from Angels fans who would rather not see a familiar division figure land in Houston. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Make A Pitching Hire Fans Will Definitely Notice
The Astros have added a familiar modern-development name to their pitching operation, hiring Spencer Medick as their new director of pitching. Medick arrives with a background in data-driven player development and four years of coaching in the Yankees' minor league system, giving Houston another voice aimed at sharpening how it identifies, shapes and advances arms throughout the organization.
Medicks job will be broad but not game-day visible, since hell oversee pitching development across the system rather than work as an on-field coach during games. Its the kind of behind-the-scenes hire that can quietly matter a lot for an organization like Houston, where the pitching pipeline has long been a central part of the clubs identity and where the next wave of arms will be watched closely. [Read more 🡒]