Spring Training Brings Hope - and a Few Red Flags - for the Astros
Spring training is supposed to be the season of optimism. New year, clean slate, and for the Houston Astros, a chance to shake off the sting of 2025 and get back to being the perennial contender fans have come to expect.
But as every baseball fan knows, spring can also be cruel. One awkward slide, one misstep during drills, and suddenly the season outlook changes in a heartbeat.
For the Astros, a couple of those warning signs are already flashing.
Early Injuries Raising Eyebrows
Let’s start behind the plate. Catcher Yainer Diaz, who was expected to take another step forward this season, sprained his foot while playing winter ball.
It’s not a season-ending injury, but it’s enough to cast some early doubt on Houston’s catching depth. Diaz was a key part of the team's game-calling and offensive plans, and any delay in his ramp-up could ripple into April.
Then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer had his 2025 season cut short in August with a left shoulder capsule strain, and now he’s dealing with biceps tendonitis.
That’s not the kind of news you want to hear about your high-leverage bullpen anchor. Before Hader went down, Houston’s bullpen was humming - second-best ERA in the league at 3.30.
After August 8, without him? That number ballooned to 4.62, plummeting to 23rd in the majors.
That’s a steep drop, and it wasn’t a coincidence.
Still, both Diaz and Hader are expected to be ready when the games start to count. Their situations are worth monitoring, but they’re not panic buttons - at least not yet.
The Real Nightmare Scenarios: Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown
Now, if you’re looking for the two players the Astros cannot afford to lose this spring, it’s not Diaz or Hader. It’s Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown. If either of those two suffers a significant injury before Opening Day, Houston’s hopes of competing in the AL West could go up in smoke.
Yordan Alvarez: The Offensive Engine
Let’s not sugarcoat it - the Astros’ 2025 season was derailed in large part because of Alvarez’s injury woes. It started with a misdiagnosed hand injury that turned out to be a fracture.
The delay in proper treatment cost him 100 games. Then, just when he was rounding back into form, a sprained left ankle knocked him out of the final two weeks - and with it, Houston’s playoff chances.
Alvarez only played 48 games last year. Without him, the Astros’ left-handed bats posted a league-worst .653 OPS. That’s not just a hole in the lineup - that’s a crater.
He’s more than just a lefty bat, though. Alvarez is one of the five best hitters in baseball, full stop. He’s still in his prime at 28, and on a team that’s increasingly relying on aging veterans like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker, Alvarez is the one guy you can count on to carry the offense night in and night out.
If he’s healthy, the Astros have a chance to start hot and stay in the thick of the AL West race. If he’s not? Things could unravel quickly.
Hunter Brown: The Ace They Can’t Replace
On the mound, Hunter Brown has gone from promising young arm to bona fide ace. A third-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting last year cemented his status, and outside of Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, there aren’t many starters in the league you’d rather hand the ball to.
Brown has been a model of durability, logging at least 29 starts in each of the last three seasons. But here’s the catch: in previous years, the Astros had Framber Valdez as a safety net. That’s no longer the case.
This year’s rotation depth is more about quantity than quality. If Brown were to go down in March, the Opening Day ball might go to Tatsuya Imai - a talented pitcher, but one who’s never thrown a pitch in the majors.
Behind him? Mike Burrows, with just under 100 career innings; Cristian Javier, who’s still finding his rhythm post-Tommy John surgery; and Lance McCullers Jr., whose health and effectiveness remain major question marks.
That’s a lot of uncertainty. And without Brown anchoring the staff, the pressure on those unproven arms would skyrocket.
The Bottom Line
Every team enters spring training with hope, but also with a mental list of "must-stay-healthy" players. For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown top that list - and it’s not particularly close.
Diaz and Hader are important, no doubt. But if Alvarez’s bat or Brown’s arm goes missing for any stretch of time this spring, Houston could be in for a long summer. The margin for error is thinner than it’s been in years, and the Astros know it.
The pieces are still there for another run. But as camp opens, the spotlight is squarely on the health of two of Houston’s biggest stars.