The Astros may already have one of the safer bets on the center-field market in Daulton Varsho, and the case for keeping him comes down to a simple idea: Houston has seen enough to know what he can still bring, even after a rough 2026 at the plate.
Varsho’s overall value hasn’t disappeared. From 2023 through 2025, he piled up 7.3 fWAR, which accounted for 54.5% of his 13.4 career fWAR entering the 2026 season. That stretch marked the strongest run of his career since he landed with the Blue Jays in 2023.
The trouble came in 2026, when the offense cratered. Over 140 games, Varsho hit .221/.281/.355 with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs.
His OPS settled at .636, a clear drop from the .709 he has posted for his career. Even with that kind of production, he still finished with a positive 0.8 fWAR because the glove stayed elite in center field and he added 1.2 BsR, FanGraphs’ measure of baserunning value.
That bat, though, is the real question. Houston needs more than defense from Varsho, and the encouraging part is that his season wasn’t flat from start to finish. He opened well enough to keep hope alive, posting wRC+ marks of 101 in April, 117 in May and 116 in June while mixing in his usual flashes of power.
By the halfway point, he was sitting at .240/.308/.387 with a .696 OPS and a 94 wRC+. That wasn’t the version of Varsho the Blue Jays had seen at his best, but it still left room to believe a strong second half could reset the season.
Instead, the slump followed him to Houston after the trade deadline. After the All-Star break, his OPS slid from .696 to .555, and he produced a brutal 54 wRC+.
His swing still showed the traits that make him dangerous when everything is right - he can find pitches and drive them the other way - but in the second half he only really did damage when he pulled the ball, and that came with a .947 OPS. The expected numbers didn’t point to a pure luck problem either.
His .195 average in the second half sat close to a .211 xBA, and his .312 slugging was only .036 below his .348 xSLG. In other words, the issue looked more like what he was doing when he made contact than whether he was making contact at all.
That is why Houston has reasons to keep looking at him. He was already in the building, which matters. His fit was clear, and he did have games where his value went beyond elite defense in center.
There’s also the roster balance piece. Varsho would give Houston a left-handed outfielder who brings defensive value and helps strengthen the right side of the field next to right fielder Cam Smith, who was one of the team’s best defenders. At the same time, the uneven play from the club’s left fielders has created a troubling imbalance.
And then there’s the market. The free-agent pool doesn’t appear loaded with center fielders who offer more overall value.
Cedric Mullins is the most likely center fielder to reach free agency, though he still has a mutual option with the Tampa Bay Rays when the season ends. Among the center fielders expected to be available, Mullins led the group with 1.1 fWAR.
After that comes Trent Grisham at 0.7, and even with his offensive decline - and especially his defense in 2026 - he still looks like a usable option if the New York Yankees let him go. Tyrone Taylor, who posted 1.5 fWAR, offers versatility and can handle all three outfield spots. Luis Robert Jr. is another possibility, though he may receive an offer from the Baltimore Orioles.
Varsho still stands out in that group, and the numbers back it up. Since 2023, he ranks seventh among MLB center fielders with 27 FRV, while only Robert Jr., 13th with 21 FRV, shows up among the top 15 from that free-agent list.
So Houston has a real decision here, but the argument for staying the course is strong. If the Astros can get the bat back to the level Varsho showed from 2023 through 2025, the payoff could be exactly what they were hoping for.
In Other News...
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For Houston, the deal was always going to be judged in part by how the other side fit together, and Pittsburgh has clearly gotten production from all three pieces. Lowe is headed for free agency, which only adds another layer to how the move is viewed, but Montgomery is the real long-term piece here since he remains under team control through 2030. That gives the Pirates a different kind of value than a one-season rental, and it is the sort of return that can change the way a trade is remembered. [Read more 🡒]
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Astros Left Field Problem Looks Even Worse After One Former Move
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What makes it sting for Houston is not just that Harris settled in elsewhere, but that his improvement came while the Astros continued to cycle through possibilities and never solidify the position. San Diego benefited from the depth, Houston did not, and the gap showed up in the standings as the Astros fell short of the playoffs with left field still lingering as one of the rosters biggest unresolved issues. [Read more 🡒]