The Astros are still very much in the playoff picture, even after a rough sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend.
Houston enters a key mid-week series against the Kansas City Royals at 75-75 and somehow still holds first place in the AL West. The margin is slim - just one game ahead of the Texas Rangers before Tuesday’s game - but the Astros also own the tiebreaker after winning the Silver Boot for the 10th straight year. That setup leaves the division race tight and the finish line crowded.
The numbers say Houston’s path to October is still in good shape. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 77.2 percent chance to reach the postseason, along with a 74.2 percent shot at winning the division. The first-round bye remains possible, too, though it sits at 21.7 percent.
One reason the outlook remains favorable is the schedule. Houston’s remaining strength of schedule is .484, and after the Royals, the Astros still have road series against the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners. Both opponents have losing records.
But the catch is obvious: Houston hasn’t handled either one well. The Astros are 4-5 against the A’s and 2-9 against the Mariners.
Texas, meanwhile, has a tougher finish. The Rangers’ remaining strength of schedule is .513, and FanGraphs projects Houston to end up at 81-81, with Texas right behind at 80-82. No MLB team has ever won a division with that kind of record.
Baseball Reference is even more bullish on Houston. It gives the Astros an 87 percent chance to make the playoffs, an 85.3 percent chance to win the division, and a 22.4 percent chance at a bye. The site also pegs Houston at 54.6 percent to reach the ALDS and 23.3 percent to get to the ALCS, while both outlets put the Astros’ World Series odds around 4 percent.
A .500 finish looks like a real possibility from here, though Baseball Reference lists Houston’s best possible record at 84-78. That would require a 9-3 run to close the season. Given how weak the division has been, and how the odds are stacking up, a division winner around .500 doesn’t sound far-fetched at all.
In Other News...
Joe Espada Debate Gets More Uncomfortable As Astros Season Slips Away
The Astros have spent enough of this season hovering around .500 that the numbers now tell a frustratingly familiar story. At 75-75, they are still clinging to relevance, but their Pythagorean expected record of 70-80 suggests the margin between surviving and slipping has been thinner than it looks on the standings page. Even with a bullpen that has been one of the sturdier parts of the roster, Houston has not consistently translated that into the kind of results it used to bank during its better years.
What makes the conversation about Joe Espada more uncomfortable is that the usual escape routes are harder to find. The Astros have been worse in one-run games and blowouts than they were in previous seasons, and that leaves the spotlight on the places where a manager can influence outcomes, from situational hitting to in-game choices. With the season fading and the record continuing to drift, those decisions are becoming a bigger part of the evaluation than anyone around the team probably wanted. [Read more 🡒]
Carlos Correa Return Hopes Just Took A Painful Turn For Astros
Carlos Correas comeback to Houston will have to wait, at least for now. The Astros infielder will not play again in 2024, with manager Joe Espada saying the issue is not a setback or a fresh injury but the soreness and workload that came with his recovery from left ankle tendon surgery.
For the Astros, it is a frustrating end to a return path that had already been full of caution. Correa is expected to be shut down for the rest of the season, leaving Houston to look ahead without a reunion on the field and with his next realistic target now centered on a healthy return in 2027. [Read more 🡒]
Carlos Correa's Surprise Push Comes At A Perfect Time For Astros
Carlos Correas recovery has moved from a long-shot feel to something far more tangible for the Astros, with the veteran shortstop now taking live batting practice and getting in defensive work after ankle surgery in May initially appeared likely to end his season. Houston has been encouraged enough by the progress to hope he can start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land soon, a notable step for a player whose return once seemed out of the picture.
The timing matters because the Astros are locked in a tight American League West race and could use every bit of help they can get down the stretch. Even the possibility of Correa getting back before the regular season ends gives the lineup and infield a different look, and it adds another layer to a September push that already figures to come down to the wire. [Read more 🡒]