The Houston Astros are still chasing the pack, but the path back into the postseason picture is a lot more realistic than it was a month ago.
After dropping a three-game set to the Minnesota Twins, Houston gets an off day before returning home to face the Tampa Bay Rays. That series arrives at a key moment for a club that finished June on a better note, even if the overall record still leaves plenty of ground to make up.
At 43-46, the Astros are still below .500, yet they remain third in the AL West and only two games back in the divisional race. That keeps them in the mix, but it also means there’s little margin for error as the second half gets closer.
FanGraphs currently pegs Houston’s playoff odds at 33.1%, which is third-best in the AL West behind the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The division race remains tight enough that the Astros are still looking at two different routes in: the division or a wild-card spot.
Right now, Houston’s chances of getting in as a Wild Card team sit at 23.8%. Their odds of winning the AL West are just 9.3%, with the Mariners at 59.7% and the Rangers at 26.2%.
The stretch ahead matters. Houston closes the first half against the Rangers, and the club will need strong showings against the Rays and the Washington Nationals after hosting three games at Daikin Park.
There’s still talent here that gives the Astros a real shot. Hunter Brown is back and healthy, anchoring the rotation, while Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have supplied the power production. The article’s bigger point is simple: if Houston is going to keep climbing, it needs those pieces to keep delivering.
Spencer Arrighetti gets the ball to open the series against Tampa Bay. He’ll be looking to steady himself after a rough outing against the Detroit Tigers, and he enters the start having lost his last three decisions.
In Other News...
Astros Outfield Hope Just Landed A Huge National Honor
The Astros have another reason to keep a close eye on their farm system this summer, and it comes with some national shine. Houston announced that one of its top young talents will represent the organization on the American League roster in the MLB Futures Game on July 12 at Citizens Bank Park, a showcase that has long served as a stage for the games most promising minor leaguers.
At just 18 and already holding his own at Single-A, Kevin Alvarez has started to build a case as one of the more intriguing names in the Houston system. He is batting .266 with six home runs and 30 RBIs, and he has climbed to No. 70 on MLBs prospect rankings, a reminder that the Astros may be looking at a future answer in the outfield even if that timeline is still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Face Painful Deadline Choice With Young Pitching Now In Play
AJ Blubaugh has become one of the more interesting names floating around Houstons deadline conversations, and that says plenty about where the Astros are right now. The right-hander has handled a heavy workload in his first major-league season and done it with a 3.36 ERA over 56 1/3 innings, giving the club a useful arm in the bullpen while also reminding front-office decision-makers that he is exactly the kind of controllable pitcher contenders hate to move.
The Astros still have several needs to sort through before the deadline, including help from the left side of the outfield, another right-handed reliever and possibly a starter, which is why young, affordable pitching is suddenly part of the discussion. Blubaugh is under team control for five more seasons, and Houston has shown before under Dana Brown that it will part with promising players when it believes the return can help now, but for the moment the bigger question is whether the club can improve without sacrificing too much of the depth it has spent years building. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Pitching Depth Takes Another Hit At The Worst Time
Houstons pitching depth has taken another hit at a time when every arm matters, with Kai-Wei Teng landing on the injured list after a recent stretch that had already raised concerns. The right-hander had been struggling on the mound, and the move offers some explanation for why his performance had slipped as the Astros tried to piece together enough dependable innings.
Tengs latest stint in the organization has also carried an unusual procedural wrinkle, since the club had initially sent him to Triple-A Sugar Land before this latest development changed the picture. Houston has not yet announced a corresponding roster move, leaving one more open question for a staff that could hardly afford another one. [Read more 🡒]