The Houston Astros are still clinging to first place in the American League West, but one August number stands out like a warning light: 15.
That’s how many home runs they’ve hit through play on August 18, and for a club built to do damage over the fence, it’s a troubling figure. The Astros entered Wednesday holding a one-game edge over the Texas Rangers, so October baseball at Minute Maid Park is still very much in play. But the power outage is impossible to ignore, especially with a lineup that already leans heavily on a few key bats.
Yordan Alvarez remains the MVP favorite with 36 home runs and the lead in all the Triple Crown categories. Even so, the Astros can’t afford long quiet stretches from the heart of the order, and Alvarez has managed only one homer since July 28.
The deeper problem is that Houston’s pitching staff isn’t built to pick up the slack if the offense goes cold. The rotation’s 5.12 ERA is third-worst in baseball, and while Hunter Brown has been solid, strike-throwing has become a real issue.
Peter Lambert has been excellent, but he’s approaching an innings threshold he has never reached before. Beyond those two, the options are thin.
There isn’t really a starter you’d feel great about handing the ball to in a Game 3 in October.
The trade deadline didn’t help that picture. Instead of adding to the staff, Houston moved Spencer Arrighetti, who had been hurt and struggling but also flashed enough earlier in the year to win American League Pitcher of the Month in May. In return, the Astros got Daulton Varsho, whose power could help address the lineup’s issues, though he has just a .188 SLG in 54 plate appearances since the deal.
The one thing keeping this from becoming a full-blown crisis is the bullpen. Josh Hader has been automatic, and since June 1 the Astros rank third in bullpen ERA.
That relief group has bailed out plenty of shaky nights already. Still, expecting the bullpen to keep covering for both a stagnant offense and an unreliable rotation over the stretch run is asking for a lot.
Houston is not falling apart. Alvarez is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.
Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes are both putting together strong seasons. The bullpen is among the better ones in baseball.
And the Astros have already shown they can survive some low-scoring wins on the way to the top of the division.
But 15 home runs in August is the kind of number that leaves little room for error. In a season where the margins are shrinking, the Astros are making too few of the kinds of plays that usually carry a team through October.
It can be fixed. There just isn’t much time left.
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