Tatsuya Imai’s latest scare ended up being minor, but the bigger issue for the Astros is much harder to brush off: they need him, and they may not have a better option.
Imai lasted only 3 2/3 innings in his July 7 start against the Washington Nationals, a grind of an outing in which he allowed four hits, four walks and two runs over 84 pitches. The short start pushed his season ERA to 6.06 across 52 innings, and the underlying numbers have been just as rough.
He’s sitting at 5.71 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9, with an average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour that ranks in the 18th percentile. He’s also not missing enough bats or baiting hitters out of the zone, posting a 27.2% chase rate in the 19th percentile and a 45.9% hard-hit rate in the seventh percentile.
The picture is pretty simple: Imai is walking too many hitters, and when he does throw strikes, opponents are making him pay. That’s a bad combination for any starter, and especially for a team trying to steady a rotation.
Still, the Astros are talking like they expect him to settle in. After the game, Joe Espada said, “Coming from Japan to the U.S., there’s been some ups and downs, which we knew that was going to happen,” Espada said following the game.
“It’s part of the process, and he’s adjusting to this league. He’s grown and he’s leaning on people to make that adjustment and we’ve seen his growth the last couple of weeks.
I’m expecting him to be someone we can rely on in the second half.”
Houston’s confidence sounds nice, but the reality around the rotation is messy. Mike Burrows is now in Sugar Land after putting up a 5.99 ERA.
Spencer Arrighetti has lost the plot in recent weeks. Even Hunter Brown was tagged for six earned runs over four innings on July 4 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Peter Lambert has been the steadiest starter in the group, which says plenty on its own. He didn’t make the Opening Day roster, couldn’t keep a rotation job with the lowly Colorado Rockies, and posted a 4.26 ERA in Japan’s NPB last year.
That’s why the Astros are staring at the trade deadline knowing they need pitching help. They need another starter, and probably more than one. The problem is that they don’t have the prospect capital or the luxury-tax flexibility to go after multiple big rotation upgrades while also filling other holes, including a left-handed hitting outfielder and bullpen help.
So the Astros are left hoping Imai can give them something in the second half. There have been signs.
He was part of the combined no-hitter against the rival Texas Rangers on May 25, and about a month later he went on a strikeout-heavy run against the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. But that momentum didn’t last.
In his two starts since then, he’s thrown five total innings, walked eight batters and allowed seven earned runs.
Houston still needs to add a starter. But it also needs Imai to become a contributor, whether that belief comes from real confidence or simply from the fact that the Astros don’t have much else to lean on.
In Other News...
Astros Were Just Tied To A Much Bigger Brewers Concern
The Brewers wrapped up the first half with a loss to the Pirates and a 59-37 record, but the more pressing news for a contender with October ambitions came off the field. Milwaukee kept tinkering with the roster at the break, including bringing in infielder Braden Shewmake from the Astros for cash while also making a few other moves to clear space and reset the depth chart.
Brandon Woodruffs situation is the one hanging over everything. He has not pitched since July 4, and after a new shoulder issue pushed him to the 60-Day Injured List, the Brewers are still waiting on a second opinion before they can map out anything resembling a return plan. For a team trying to protect a strong first half, the uncertainty around one of its key arms is the kind of concern that can linger well beyond the All-Star break. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Just Got Another Troubling Sign About Their Rotation Depth
The Astros rotation depth took another hit this week when right-hander Mike Burrows landed on the 15-day injured list after being optioned to Triple-A. Houston had hoped the move would give Burrows a chance to regroup, but the club instead had to reverse course and nullify the assignment, leaving another arm unavailable as the team tries to keep its pitching staff intact through the summer stretch.
Burrows is not eligible to return until July 22, and his situation comes on the heels of a similar episode with Kai-Wei Teng just three weeks earlier. For a front office that has already spent real prospect capital to build pitching depth, the repeated injury-related reversals are a reminder that the Astros margin for error on the mound is getting thinner, not wider. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Cannot Cross This Trade Deadline Line
The Astros reached the All-Star break at 47-51, a place they have not been in for years and one that forces a different kind of conversation as the trade deadline approaches. If Houston does decide to listen on veterans, it will be doing so from an unfamiliar position, with the front office having to weigh short-term damage against whatever chance remains to keep the season from slipping away.
Yordan Alvarez is the one player who makes that calculation feel especially dangerous. Even in a down year for the club, he has been one of the leagues most productive hitters and remains under contract through 2028 on a deal that still looks favorable for Houston, which is exactly why moving him would be the kind of move that can haunt a team long after the deadline passes. [Read more 🡒]