The Houston Astros are down to the kind of stretch where sentiment has to go out the window.
They were in first place in the AL West on July 31. Now they’re a game behind the Texas Rangers, three games back of the Chicago White Sox for the third and final Wild Card spot, and four games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead and what had once looked like a path to the No. 2 seed. September has been ugly: Houston has lost 11 of 19, topped four runs only four times, and been held to three runs or fewer in 12 games.
That kind of offensive drag leaves very little room for error, and the Astros have not been helping themselves with the way they’ve filled out the lineup. Daulton Varsho and Christian Walker have been parked in the middle of the order too often, and the results have been poor.
The complaint earlier in the season was all the constant shuffling. Now that the lineup has settled, the production has gotten worse.
At this point, the case is simple: Houston has six games left, and those six games need to be treated like their season is on the line.
One proposed reshuffle starts with Isaac Paredes at third base and at the top of the order, where his ability to reach base matters most. In September, he’s hitting .286 with a .378 on-base percentage and a .950 OPS. He has 14 of his 22 home runs at home, but his on-base work has stayed steady regardless of where Houston is playing.
Yordan Alvarez slides to left field, a move that fits both the bat and the current state of the outfield. He’s still the centerpiece at .278/.409/.928, and in 23 games in left field he’s hit .383 with a 1.268 OPS. The outfield offense has been dreadful, and the idea here is to put the MVP frontrunner in the spot where he can do the most damage.
Behind him, Yainer Diaz stays locked in behind the plate. He has been one of the few real bright spots in September, hitting .357/.390/.961 with three homers and three doubles this month. The point is straightforward: he should catch every game until Houston clinches or is eliminated.
Jeremy Pena moves down in the order, even though the bat has been stuck for a while. He’s at .233/.263/.688 in September and has been slumping for better part of seven months, but he still looks like the best hitter left on the roster when he’s right. The hope is that more RBI chances can help wake him up.
Jose Altuve gets the designated hitter spot. He’s at .257/.284/.712 in September, but the idea is to squeeze what’s left out of the bat. He’s hit .922 OPS in seven games as a DH this year, and last season he posted his best numbers there over 49 games with an .816 OPS.
The other changes are just as aggressive. Joey Loperfido should get the call at first base after putting up a .300/.364/.684 line at Triple-A. Christian Walker’s September has been brutal - .155 average, .210 on-base percentage, .417 OPS - and even with solid defense and four Outs Above Average, that kind of production can’t keep sliding by.
In center field, Zach Cole gets the nod over Daulton Varsho. Cole’s overall Triple-A numbers this season are rough, but his current form is better, and he still brings defense and a big arm.
His Triple-A line right now is .262/.297/.861. Varsho, meanwhile, has been a bust at .172/.200/.528, and Houston can’t keep running out automatic outs.
Nick Allen belongs at second base. He hit .303/.351/.776 in August and has only had nine at-bats in September, mostly as a late-game defensive replacement. His .271 average this season is 51 points above his career mark, and his glove gives the Astros a real upgrade up the middle.
In right field, Taylor Trammell gets the last spot. Among the outfield options Houston has used lately, he’s been the best of the group. Varsho, Wade and Smith all have OPS marks under .600 this month, while Trammell still gets on base more than 30% of the time and draws walks, which the others are not doing.
The message behind all of this is blunt. Early-season success, traded-player status and offseason optimism should not be the reasons anyone is in the lineup now. Houston has six games left to play for its life, and if the same old choices keep producing the same old results, October will be out of reach.
In Other News...
Jim Crane May Be Running Out Of Time To Reset Astros
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Reports that Joe Espada and Dana Brown could be on their way out only add to the sense that a reset is coming, one way or another. Jim Crane has a decision to make about how aggressively he wants to address the decline, because this is no longer just about one bad stretch or one disappointing series. The Astros have reached the point where changes at the top could be the cleanest way to signal a new direction, even if the most important part of that answer is still waiting to be revealed. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Keep Wasting Winnable Games At The Worst Possible Time
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The missed chances at the plate were just as costly, especially with runners on and the game hanging in the balance. Atlanta came through with the bigger swings when it mattered, and Houston could not match that clutch power at the end of an uneven series that felt especially damaging given the timing. [Read more 🡒]
Astros Catching Prospect Is Forcing A Bigger Conversation Than Expected
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Jeff Bagwell has already singled out Schiavones power, on-base ability and defensive skills, and those are the kinds of traits that can make a catching prospect impossible to ignore. The strikeout rate is still part of the picture, but when a minor league catcher does something no one has done since 1981, the Astros have to think bigger about where he fits and how quickly he could matter at the major league level. [Read more 🡒]