After a rare October off, the Houston Astros entered this offseason facing a crossroads. For the first time in a decade, the perennial contenders missed the playoffs-an unfamiliar position for a club that’s been a fixture in the postseason picture. With an aging, expensive roster and limited payroll flexibility, Houston had to thread the needle: retool enough to compete in 2026 without the luxury of a full rebuild.
Now, as spring training approaches and the major offseason dominos have mostly fallen, the question hangs in the air: did the Astros do enough to get back into the mix?
Projections paint a sobering picture
According to FanGraphs’ early projections, the Astros are looking up at the Seattle Mariners in the AL West-and by a wide margin. Seattle is pegged with a nearly 60% chance to win the division and a 78% shot at the playoffs.
Houston? Just a 16.3% chance to reclaim the division crown, and a 38.1% probability of reaching the postseason at all.
That’s not just a gap-it’s a canyon.
And the road through the Wild Card doesn’t offer much relief. The AL East is stacked, with four teams projected at better than 53.6% playoff odds. Even in the AL Central, where the overall talent pool is thinner, the Tigers are favored, and the Royals-yes, the Royals-are projected just ahead of Houston in playoff likelihood.
Rotation overhaul raises more questions than answers
The biggest offseason need was clear: the starting rotation. Framber Valdez’s departure left a major void at the top, and his addition to the Tigers is a big reason Detroit’s stock rose in the projections. Houston responded by adding several arms, but none of them are sure things.
Tatsuya Imai brings upside and intrigue, but the lack of a robust market for him suggests teams are wary of how his game translates to MLB. Mike Burrows has promise, but with fewer than 100 big league innings under his belt, he’s still largely unproven. Ryan Weiss is a true wild card, and Nate Pearson-once a top prospect-is more of a longshot at this point.
So, did the Astros improve the rotation? Maybe. But it’s just as fair to say they rolled the dice.
Offensive holes remain, especially from the left side
While Houston addressed the rotation-at least in volume-they left other key areas largely untouched. Chief among them: the lack of a reliable left-handed bat.
That puts pressure on Jesus Sanchez, who struggled after being acquired at last year’s deadline. Even if Sanchez rebounds, the Astros could’ve used another lefty threat to balance the lineup.
Depth is another concern. Injuries were a major storyline last year, and while the team has revamped its training staff, the roster is still packed with veterans who’ve logged a lot of miles-and a lot of time on the injured list.
The backup catcher spot remains unresolved, and the infield has both a logjam and a depth issue. Nick Allen, for example, provides defensive value but remains a liability at the plate.
A quiet offseason with a loud impact
Houston’s front office took a conservative approach this winter, and that strategy might come back to bite them. While other teams acted decisively, the Astros were often reactive rather than proactive. That’s a risky game to play when your margin for error is already razor-thin.
To be clear, this isn’t a team without talent. There’s still plenty of championship DNA in that clubhouse. But with a roster that’s older, thinner, and more fragile than in years past-and with the rest of the division getting better-the path back to October is anything but guaranteed.
The Astros didn’t blow it up. They didn’t go all-in, either.
They tried to walk the line. Now we’ll find out if that middle ground is enough to keep them in the fight-or if 2026 becomes another year of what-ifs in Houston.