Vikings Face an Offseason of Hard Truths After Offensive Collapse, Defensive Overperformance
The Minnesota Vikings came into 2025 with more questions than answers, and as the season wrapped, those questions only got louder. A year after finishing 14th in offensive EPA, they plummeted to 28th - a steep drop that wasn’t just about growing pains at quarterback. It was a full-system failure on offense, and the road back is anything but simple.
Offense: The JJ McCarthy Experiment Falls Flat
Let’s start under center. Minnesota handed the keys to rookie JJ McCarthy after letting Sam Darnold walk - a decision that looked worse with every passing week.
Darnold went on to win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks. McCarthy, meanwhile, finished as PFF’s 33rd-ranked quarterback.
That’s not a typo - there are only 32 starting jobs in the NFL.
It stings even more when you remember Daniel Jones was also in that quarterback room last year. He found new life in Indianapolis and even entered the MVP conversation before an injury cut his season short. The Vikings, meanwhile, were stuck in neutral - or worse.
But pinning the offensive collapse solely on the quarterback would be missing the forest for the trees. The offensive line struggled across the board, with right tackle Brian O’Neill standing as the lone bright spot.
He cracked the top 12 at his position, but he’s also a potential cap casualty this offseason. That’s the kind of roster math Minnesota is facing.
The run game offered no relief. Not a single back came close to average production, and the lack of a ground threat only magnified McCarthy’s struggles. Wide receiver Jordan Addison, who flashed promise in his rookie year, took a step back - and now finds himself swirling in trade rumors.
The bottom line? This wasn’t just a young quarterback learning the ropes. This was a broken offense from top to bottom.
And here's the kicker: even if the Vikings wanted to overhaul the roster, they’re boxed in. The cap situation is tight.
You’re not going to find three starting-caliber offensive linemen, a veteran quarterback, a couple of running backs, and a WR2 just sitting out there in free agency - not with the budget Minnesota’s working with. The reinforcements aren’t coming, at least not all at once.
That means the offense, barring a miracle, is likely to struggle again in 2026.
Defense: Flores Worked Magic, But Can It Last?
If there's a silver lining, it's the defense. Brian Flores turned this unit into one of the league’s most efficient groups, finishing third in defensive EPA. And he did it without any All-Pro-level performances.
That’s not hyperbole. Their highest-ranked defensive lineman came in at 31st.
Their top linebacker? 40th.
Best defensive back? 19th.
That was corner Isaiah Rodgers, who transitioned from slot to outside and thrived in Flores’ pressure-heavy scheme. But even that comes with a caution flag.
Rodgers’ breakout feels eerily similar to Byron Murphy’s resurgence a few years back. Murphy played like a top-tier corner after a rough stretch in Arizona, got paid, and then cratered to a 70th-place ranking the following season. Rodgers could follow a similar path, especially if the pressure schemes that helped him flourish start to lose their edge.
And that’s a real concern. Flores’ defenses are built on deception - simulated pressures, exotic looks, and disguise-heavy coverages.
But the league catches up fast. Quarters pressures and sim looks are no longer rare; they’re trending league-wide.
The element of surprise is fading.
On top of that, the Vikings are likely to lose veteran safety Harrison Smith, a critical piece of the puzzle. Smith wasn’t just a playmaker - he was the on-field coach who kept Flores’ complex scheme glued together. Without him, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
Looking Ahead: A Narrow Path Forward
So where does that leave Minnesota? In a tough spot, frankly.
The defense could regress - not because Flores forgot how to coach, but because the league evolves and the personnel may not be able to keep up. If the offense stays stuck in the mud and the defense slides from elite to merely solid, the Vikings could be looking at a sub-.500 season.
Let’s say they go all-in and bring back Kirk Cousins in free agency. Best-case scenario, the defense holds steady around 12th in EPA.
That might be enough to flirt with mediocrity, but it’s not a playoff formula. That’s how you end up 5-12, wondering where the last few years went.
The Vikings have talent, but they also have holes, cap constraints, and a quarterback situation that’s far from settled. If 2025 was a reality check, 2026 might be the year they have to face it head-on.