The Packers left Week 2 with an overtime win over the Jets, and the numbers tell a pretty clear story: Green Bay leaned a little more into the passing game, played heavier nickel on defense, and got a standout performance from Lukas Van Ness.
On offense, the biggest shift was in personnel usage. The Packers were in 11 personnel on 55.1% of their snaps, a jump from 47.8% in Week 1.
They used 12 personnel 30.6% of the time, 13 personnel 14.3% of the time and “Other” on 2% of snaps. As a reminder, personnel is just a way of identifying who’s on the field, with the first number representing running backs, the second tight ends and the remaining skill spots filled out by receivers.
The run game never really found traction. Green Bay used a mix of zone and gap concepts, with a third of its runs coming from the zone family - 11.1% inside zone and 22.2% wide zone - and the rest spread across gap and power looks.
The production wasn’t there. The Packers finished with 18 carries for 63 yards, 55 of those yards coming after contact, and posted -0.48 EPA per play.
Inside zone was the best of the bunch at -0.06 EPA per play, while the power game had a rough efficiency day at -0.76 EPA per play even though it carried a 60% success rate.
The overall playcalling still tilted toward the pass. Green Bay threw the ball on 64% of its offensive snaps, down a bit from 68.7% in Week 1 but still a clear sign that Matt LaFleur is opening things up for Jordan Love more than he did a year ago. That’s a trend worth watching early in the season, and it showed up again in this game.
The passing numbers themselves were ordinary at best. Green Bay finished at -0.17 EPA per play with a 34.4% success rate through the air.
Rain and Love’s numb fingers didn’t help matters, but the more important note is that the offense is at least trying to push the ball. Love also spent more of his time working the short-to-intermediate areas of the field.
Protection was better than it was in Week 1. The Jets blitzed on 28.13% of snaps, which was just 0.3% above the league average, but their pressure rate came in at 31.25%, which was 7.86% below the NFL average.
One odd wrinkle: Green Bay stayed run-heavy on 1st and 10. On those downs, the Packers ran the ball 64% of the time.
It didn’t go well. Their run plays on 1st and 10 produced -0.60 EPA per play with a 29% success rate.
Passing on 1st and 10 wasn’t much better, but it was better, at -0.07 EPA per play and a 33% success rate. Their Week 1 1st-and-10 run rate was 48%, so this could have been the rain talking.
Or it could be something more permanent. Either way, it was not a strong day for that approach.
Matthew Golden gave the offense one of its brighter moments. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 58 yards and posted +1.27 EPA per reception.
His average depth of target was 13.33 yards, and he averaged 8 yards after the catch. Golden’s YAC has kept popping, and he had targets both outside and from the slot.
Four of his looks came while aligned wide, where he posted +1.2 EPA per reception, and two came from the slot, where he was at +1.48 EPA per reception. The play that got Green Bay into chip-shot field goal range also came with Golden aligned outside.
Defensively, the Packers shifted harder into nickel than they did a week ago. After splitting their snaps almost evenly between base and nickel in Week 1, they used nickel on 72.2% of their defensive snaps against the Jets, which was 11.02% above the league average. That lines up with New York’s 69.4% usage of 11 personnel, but it’s still a notable change worth tracking.
Coverage was heavily zone-based. Green Bay was in zone on 87% of its defensive snaps, with the breakdown looking like this: Cover 3 at 32.6%, Cover 4 at 32.6%, Cover 2 at 13%, Cover 6 at 8.7%, Cover 1 at 10.9% and Cover 0 at 2.2%. Most of it lived in the Quarters family.
The Packers also brought heat more often than league average. Their blitz rate was 34.69%, which sat 6.87% above the NFL average.
That’s been one of the more interesting early-season developments, especially given the talk about Gannon’s lighter blitz tendencies in the past. Through two weeks, he has been more aggressive in Green Bay, and he seems to be looking for ways to put his best players in position to make plays.
Van Ness was the headliner on that side of the ball. He piled up 5 solo tackles, 5 assisted tackles and 3 tackles for loss, including 1.5 sacks.
As a rusher, he generated pressure on 23.3% of his snaps and got home in an average of 2.6 seconds. His 3 tackles for loss tied him for the Week 2 lead with Will Anderson, Elijah Ponder and Nick Herbig.
His 7 pressures tied for fourth in the week, and his 3 stuffed runs tied Will Anderson for the Week 2 lead.
Dani Dennis-Sutton also turned in a strong showing. He was on the field for 40% of the Packers’ defensive snaps and finished with 2 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles.
The box score won’t jump off the page, but the pressure data does: he posted a 29.4% pressure rate with an average time to pressure of 2.4 seconds. Among players with at least 25 snaps, that pressure rate ranked fourth in Week 2.
He has looked impressive through the first two games.
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