The opening number for Week 10 has Green Bay in a familiar spot: favored, and by a field goal. FanDuel lists the Packers as 3-point favorites over the Vikings, with the line carrying a little juice at -120. Green Bay is also -178 on the moneyline, which works out to an implied win probability of 64 percent.
That would have sounded a lot different a few weeks ago, when the Packers’ offensive line was struggling badly. But after Green Bay finally put together a 100-yard rushing performance and handled the New England Patriots in all three phases, the picture has changed. Suddenly, the Packers look like a team with a real chance to make a postseason push.
Minnesota comes into this with a different rhythm. The Vikings have played two fewer games than Green Bay because they’ve already had their bye and are set to face the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. After that, they’ll be working on a shorter week before heading to Lambeau Field.
There’s also uncertainty at quarterback. Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and will not play against the Bills.
That leaves open the question of whether he’ll be ready for Green Bay, or whether Carson Wentz will still be the starter when the Vikings get to Week 10. The only other quarterback on Minnesota’s 53-man roster is Max Brosmer.
The broader NFC picture is just as crowded as the race between these two teams. Green Bay is sitting in the seventh seed, where it has been for weeks, but the conference keeps getting squeezed by the teams above and below it. The NFC North is winning, and so are the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, the clubs chasing from behind.
It has created a strange-looking playoff race. The Athletic’s playoff simulator shows the 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with about the same playoff odds through the NFC South as the Rams, who are a .500 team and, in that setup, basically headed for a playoff spot or nothing in 2026.
So the math in the NFC is messy, and the path is crowded. Seven teams from the North and West are battling for five playoff spots, while the East and South remain their own separate kind of chaos. At this point, it would not be a shock if a sub-.500 NFC South winner ends up hosting a 12-5 or better NFC North team in the wild card round.
In Other News...
Vikings Are Stuck In A Division Race Unlike Anything The NFL Sees
The NFC North has turned into the kind of race that usually only exists on paper, with all four teams entering Week 10 sitting at least three games above .500. For Green Bay, the bigger picture is hard to ignore: the Packers are 6-3, right in the middle of a division where the Bears are 7-2, the Vikings are 6-1 and the Lions are 6-2, and every week seems to reshuffle the order without knocking anyone out of the hunt.
What makes it even more unusual is the pace the division is setting as a whole, with the NFC North piling up wins at a rate that has it tracking toward a historic finish. The Packers do not have the luxury of treating this like a normal division race, because the margin for error is tiny and the standard to keep up is unusually high, which is exactly why every game from here carries an outsized feel. [Read more 🡒]
Jordan Love Is Driving A Packers Surge That Feels Bigger Now
After a slow start, the Packers have settled into a run that looks a lot more like the team they expected to be, winning five of their last six and getting steadier play from Jordan Love along the way. His recent outings against the Patriots and Bears helped push the offense forward, with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden giving him more help at wide receiver and the whole operation starting to feel more coordinated.
What has stood out most inside the building is how Love has kept stacking solid days together, something Matt LaFleur has pointed to as a big reason for the turnaround. The Packers are still sorting out just how high this stretch can carry them, but the combination of a calmer quarterback, emerging targets and a more confident offense has changed the tone around the team in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Jordan Love Sent A Clear Message About This Packers Offense
Jordan Love and the Packers made a point of attacking New Englands secondary in Sundays 45-27 win, with cornerback Christian Gonzalez drawing plenty of attention along the way. The approach fit the way Green Bay wants to play under Love, leaning into its own plan and its own personnel rather than getting caught up in the reputation of the defender across from them.
Love said afterward the Packers do not change their offensive identity based on who is lining up in coverage, a message that matched the way they handled the Patriots. He was sharp throughout the afternoon, completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and two touchdowns, and the performance offered another reminder that Green Bay is comfortable letting its passing game dictate terms. [Read more 🡒]