Packers Playoff Picture: Injuries, Odds, and the Path Forward
The Green Bay Packers walked out of Denver with more than just a loss-they left with a battered roster and a playoff seeding that took a serious hit. Dropping from the NFC’s No. 2 seed to No. 7 stings, but losing Micah Parsons for the season to a torn ACL?
That’s a gut punch. Add in injuries to Christian Watson (chest/shoulder), Zach Tom (knee), and Evan Williams (sprained knee), and it’s no wonder fans are feeling uneasy.
But here’s the thing: the Packers are still very much alive. In fact, they’re still in the driver’s seat when it comes to their postseason destiny.
As of now, the New York Times Playoff Simulator gives them a 90% chance to make the playoffs. That’s not just a sliver of hope-that’s a real shot.
And while Super Bowl dreams may feel distant after a week like this, the mission remains the same: go 1-0 every week.
The Injury Toll Is Real-But So Is the Opportunity
Losing Parsons is a massive blow. There’s no sugarcoating that.
He’s been a tone-setter on defense, and his absence changes how this unit operates. But this is the NFL.
Every team faces adversity. The question isn’t whether the Packers can avoid it-it’s whether they can rise above it.
Despite the setbacks, Green Bay still controls its fate. They may be sitting in the No. 7 seed, but that’s a playoff spot all the same.
And once you're in, anything can happen. We’ve seen it before-teams sneak in, get hot, and suddenly they’re hoisting the Lombardi.
For now, the Packers just need to focus on securing their ticket.
What It’ll Take to Get In
The math is pretty straightforward: win one of the final three games, and the Packers are very likely in. Go 0-3, and the odds drop to 41%.
Not ideal. But even just one win bumps them back up to safety.
Two wins? Practically a lock.
Let’s break it down:
- Beat the Bears on Saturday night: Playoff chances shoot to over 99%.
- Lose to the Bears but beat the Ravens: Odds rebound to 93%.
- Lose to both Chicago and Baltimore, then beat Minnesota: Still a solid 84%.
- Beat Chicago, lose the next two: Playoff odds sit at 95%.
Bottom line: just one win keeps the Packers in the mix. Two wins, and they’re almost certainly in.
Three wins? Now we’re talking about more than just getting in-we’re talking division title and a potential No. 2 seed.
NFC North Still Within Reach
The division crown is still on the table, but it starts with Saturday night’s game in Chicago. Lose that one, and the NFC North likely slips away.
Win it, and the Packers’ odds to take the division jump to 77%. Add another win after that-against either Baltimore or Minnesota-and those odds climb above 80%.
But if they drop the Chicago game and then win the final two? Their division chances plummet to just 31%.
That’s how big this weekend’s matchup is. It’s not just a rivalry game-it’s the tipping point for the entire NFC North race.
The cleanest path? Win out.
Go 3-0 down the stretch, and the division is theirs. That would also likely lock up the No. 2 seed.
The No. 1 seed is basically out of reach-Green Bay’s odds there are just 2%, even with a perfect finish-but the No. 2 seed is very much in play at 98% if they win all three.
Playoff Seeding Scenarios
The Packers’ playoff seeding outlook is narrowing into three realistic options: No. 2, No. 6, or No. 7.
- No. 2 seed: That’s the golden ticket. It means hosting the No. 7 seed at Lambeau and potentially staying home for multiple rounds.
But to get there, Green Bay likely needs to win out.
- No. 6 or No. 7 seed: That means the road to the Super Bowl literally goes on the road. And if they lose to Chicago this weekend, that’s where they’re probably headed.
Even if the Packers beat Baltimore and Minnesota after a loss to the Bears, they’d still have a 68% shot at landing one of those lower seeds. The rest of the NFC playoff picture-featuring the 49ers (10-4) and Seahawks (11-3)-will play a role too.
And here’s where it gets tricky: Chicago and San Francisco play each other in Week 17. So depending on how this weekend shakes out, Packers fans might find themselves in the awkward position of rooting for one rival to beat another.
If Green Bay beats Chicago, they’ll want the 49ers to take down the Bears. If they lose to Chicago, they may need to root for the Bears to beat San Francisco.
It’s playoff math meets emotional gymnastics.
Who Would the Packers Face?
If Green Bay lands the No. 7 seed, they’re likely heading right back to Chicago for a Wild Card rematch. If they snag the No. 6 seed, a trip to Philadelphia could be on deck.
Neither matchup is exactly ideal-but both are winnable. The Packers have shown they can hang with the NFC’s top teams.
It's just a matter of getting in and finding their rhythm at the right time.
The Final Word
It’s been a brutal week for Green Bay, no doubt. Injuries have piled up, and the margin for error is shrinking.
But the Packers still have everything to play for. A playoff berth is well within reach, and the NFC North title is still on the table.
The next three weeks will define their season-and it all starts with Saturday night in Chicago.
One win keeps them in. Two wins locks them in.
Three wins? That could change everything.