The Green Bay Packers are officially back in the NFC spotlight-and not just as a playoff team, but as a legitimate contender for the conference’s top seed. After a statement win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving and some timely help from around the league, the Packers are surging at just the right time.
Losses by both the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams to close out Week 13 cracked the door open, and Green Bay didn’t hesitate to push through. According to the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator, the Packers now have a 65% chance to win the NFC North, which would lock in at least one home playoff game.
But the bigger prize-the No. 1 seed in the NFC-is suddenly in play. Green Bay’s odds for that top spot sit at 13%, and while that doesn’t make them the favorite, it certainly makes them a threat.
Let’s not forget where this team was just a few weeks ago. After back-to-back home losses to the Panthers and Eagles, the Packers were sitting at 5-3-1, and their path to a first-round bye looked all but closed. But three straight wins later-and with the Eagles and Rams stumbling-Green Bay has found new life in the NFC race.
What makes this run even more impressive is how the Packers have handled business within the conference. They’re 6-2-1 against NFC opponents and a perfect 3-0 in the NFC North.
No other team in the conference can say they’re undefeated in the division with just two NFC losses. That kind of résumé matters when tiebreakers start coming into play.
Now, the road ahead will test every bit of this team’s momentum. The Packers have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFC, starting with a massive Week 14 matchup at Lambeau Field against the Chicago Bears-the current No. 1 seed by tiebreaker. It’s a game that could swing the entire playoff picture.
Here’s where things stand in the NFC playoff race:
Current NFC Playoff Standings
1.
Chicago Bears (9-3)
2.
Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
3.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
5.
Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
6.
Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)
7.
San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
That’s a crowded field, and the margin for error is razor-thin. The Rams are still the frontrunners for the No. 1 seed with a 42% chance, but five teams are now sitting at 10% or better, which tells you just how wide open this race has become:
Chances to earn the No. 1 seed (via NYT NFL Playoff Simulator):
- Los Angeles Rams: 42%
- Seattle Seahawks: 18%
- Green Bay Packers: 13%
- San Francisco 49ers: 11%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10%
- Chicago Bears: 7%
The Rams may be leading the charge, but they’ve got a tricky stretch ahead. Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top contenders:
Remaining Schedules
- Rams: at Cardinals, vs.
Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
- Seahawks: at Falcons, vs. Colts, vs.
Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
- Packers: vs.
Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
- 49ers: vs. Titans, at Colts, vs.
Bears, vs. Seahawks
- Eagles: at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, vs.
Commanders
- Bears: at Packers, vs.
Browns, vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs.
Lions
The Packers and Bears arguably face the toughest slates down the stretch, with multiple games against fellow contenders and tricky road matchups. But here’s where things get interesting: teams like the Falcons and Lions, who aren’t in the thick of the race themselves, still have a say in how this plays out.
The Falcons face both the Rams and Seahawks, while the Lions will see the Rams and Bears. That’s a lot of opportunity for chaos-and for Green Bay to benefit if things break their way.
And don’t overlook the six remaining games between teams still fighting for that No. 1 seed. Sunday’s clash between the Packers and Bears is just the beginning. Every week from here on out is going to feel like a playoff game, and the margin between home-field advantage and a wild card road trip could come down to a single play.
So, while the Packers aren’t in the driver’s seat just yet, they’ve got their hands back on the wheel. And with the way they’ve been playing lately, no one in the NFC should feel comfortable.