The Green Bay Packers are riding high at 9-3-1, sitting atop the NFC North after a statement win over the Chicago Bears. They’re currently holding down the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture - and yet, their Week 15 matchup in Denver is raising some eyebrows.
Despite heading into the altitude of Mile High, the Packers opened as 2.5-point favorites over a Broncos team that’s won nine straight games. That’s right - Green Bay hasn’t been an underdog once this season, and that streak continues. But the line has some fans and analysts doing a double take, especially considering how tough Denver has been at home.
This would mark just the fifth time all season the Broncos have been underdogs - and they’ve thrived in that role. Let’s take a quick look back:
- Week 3: +3 at Chargers - Push (LAC won 23-20)
- Week 5: +4 at Eagles - Win (21-17)
- Week 9: +2.5 at Texans - Win (18-15)
- Week 11: +4 vs.
Chiefs - Win (22-19)
Three outright wins as underdogs, including one against the reigning Super Bowl champs. That’s not a fluke - that’s a team that plays with a chip on its shoulder.
So why are the Broncos underdogs again, especially at home? Well, their recent stretch - while successful - has been a bit of a tightrope act. Only one of their last five wins came by more than a field goal, and even that was a one-score game: Sunday’s 24-17 win over the Raiders.
Before that? Denver needed a missed two-point conversion to escape Washington 27-26 in overtime.
They edged out the Chiefs, Raiders, and Texans by just three points apiece. And let’s not forget Week 7’s wild comeback against the Giants - the Broncos scored all 33 of their points in the fourth quarter to steal a 33-32 win.
That kind of magic is thrilling, but it’s also hard to sustain.
On the flip side, the Packers are peaking at just the right time. After a bruising stretch of three straight division games, they’ve emerged looking sharp on both sides of the ball. The offense is finding rhythm, and the defense is quietly becoming one of the stingiest units in the league.
That’s part of why oddsmakers are anticipating a low-scoring battle in Denver. The total is set at 42.5 - one of the lowest over/unders the Packers have seen all season.
And it makes sense: Green Bay ranks sixth in scoring defense, while Denver is just ahead at fourth. This one has all the makings of a grind-it-out, possession-based chess match.
There’s also a historical wrinkle worth noting: when these two teams meet, the home team usually wins. In 15 regular-season meetings between the Packers and Broncos, the visiting team has only won once.
That lone road victory? Back in 2007, when Brett Favre hit Greg Jennings for an 82-yard walk-off touchdown in overtime - a moment that still lives in Packers lore.
So while Green Bay may be the betting favorite heading into Week 15, this game is anything but a sure thing. You’ve got two playoff-caliber defenses, a red-hot Broncos team that knows how to survive close games, and a Packers squad that’s rounding into form at the right time.
Sunday in Denver should be a battle - and it may just come down to who blinks first.