The Packers just spent a week making life miserable for one of the NFL’s better backfields, and now they get an even bigger problem.
After stuffing the Jets’ Breece Hall and Braelon Allen for just 36 yards on 21 carries, Green Bay turns around on short rest and walks into a Week 3 matchup that starts and ends with Bijan Robinson. Atlanta’s offense is still trying to find its footing at quarterback - this week it’s Michael Penix - but the Falcons have one constant: Robinson is going to touch the ball, and a lot.
That’s what makes this such a real test for a Packers run defense that has looked strong through two games. Robinson has already piled up 244 scrimmage yards in the first two weeks despite having little help around him.
Brian Robinson Jr. added 51 rushing yards last week against the Carolina Panthers, and the Falcons’ setup all but guarantees Green Bay can build its plan around the run game. The catch is that the assignment doesn’t get any easier just because the target is obvious.
If you’re looking for the nightmare version of this matchup, start with what Robinson did last season: 2,298 scrimmage yards and 5.2 yards per carry. That’s the kind of production that can flip a game in a hurry, especially if Atlanta manages to spring one explosive play and suddenly turns a tight defensive battle into points.
Green Bay’s front has been solid so far, but the Packers may need more than solid on Thursday. Jonathan Ford has been part of the early success, though his 11th percentile PFF grade raises an eyebrow even if it feels a little harsh. And the injury picture doesn’t exactly lighten the load: Warren Brinson is expected to sit again, Javon Hargrave has been limited in practice after missing Sunday’s game, and Anthony Campbell is dealing with an ankle injury.
That leaves the Packers likely leaning on the same rotation up front, with Karl Brooks and Devonte Wyatt at defensive end and Chris McClellan and Ford inside. Brooks has been excellent against the run, McClellan has also stood out, and that duo will need to keep doing its part if Green Bay wants to stay in control.
But this won’t be solved by the defensive line alone. The Packers are going to need their linebackers and defensive backs flying to the football, tackling Robinson cleanly in space and making sure he doesn’t become a weapon as a receiver. Against a player like this, missed tackles turn into long gains fast.
The encouraging part for Green Bay is that the numbers have backed up the eye test so far. The Packers rank sixth against the run, allowing -0.24 EPA per rush. Even Minnesota’s 100-yard rushing day came with an asterisk, since the Vikings averaged just 3.5 yards per carry once kneel-downs were removed.
The other piece of the puzzle is that Atlanta’s passing game, at least on paper, shouldn’t force Green Bay out of its comfort zone. The Packers’ pass defense sits 18th in EPA per play, but it still hasn’t faced a true stress test, and that won’t change much against Penix and the Falcons.
So yes, this shapes up as another favorable matchup for Green Bay. But that only matters if the Packers do the hard part first: clog the middle, hold the edge, and keep Bijan Robinson from turning a manageable night into a mess.
In Other News...
Packers May Have Found Pass Rush Help At The Perfect Time
Rookie edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton is already making the kind of first impression that can matter for a defense looking for answers. In a recent game against the New York Jets, he finished with six tackles, half a sack and two quarterback hits, and his work in pressuring the quarterback showed up beyond the box score. Through two games, he has also climbed to 15th among edge defenders in pass-rush win rate, a notable early mark for a player taken 120th in the draft.
For a Packers front that can always use another reliable source of heat off the edge, that kind of start stands out even more because it has come from a late pick outplaying several rookies selected before him. Early production is one thing, but the bigger question is whether Dennis-Sutton can keep forcing his way into the pass-rush conversation as the competition gets stiffer and the league gets more of a book on him. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Suddenly Have A Huge NFC North Opening Before Chicago
The Packers win over the Jets gave them a little breathing room, but the bigger picture in the NFC North still looks unsettled as they head into matchups with the Falcons and Buccaneers. Injuries have thinned out key spots around the division, and that has kept the race from taking shape the way it usually does this time of year. Green Bay has dealt with its own health concerns, but the door is still open for a team that can stay upright and take advantage of the chaos.
Chicago looms next, and that game could end up carrying extra weight if the division keeps wobbling. The Bears, Vikings and Lions are all dealing with issues of their own, which makes every week feel a little more consequential than usual for the Packers. Even before the matchup with Chicago arrives, Green Bay has a chance to keep stacking wins and put itself in position to make the most of an NFC North that has yet to settle into place. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Suddenly Face A Receiver Problem Bigger Than Week 3
Jayden Reeds injury quickly became the kind of scare that lingers well beyond one Sunday, because the Packers are now waiting on what tests in Green Bay will say after he was taken off the field on a stretcher against the Jets. Matt LaFleur said the receiver is back home for evaluation, and while it is still too early to pin down a recovery timeline, the immediate outlook already points to Reed missing Week 3 against the Falcons.
For a Green Bay offense that has leaned on Reeds presence, the bigger concern is how long this absence could last and what it means for a receiver room trying to keep its footing. The Packers can manage one game without him, but the uncertainty around a neck injury has a way of changing the conversation fast, especially when the next step is no longer about one matchup but about how the team will cover for him if the tests lead to a longer pause. [Read more 🡒]