With four weeks left in the regular season, the Green Bay Packers are sitting in a prime position-No. 2 in the NFC-and firmly in the playoff picture. But as any seasoned fan knows, December football has a way of shaking things up.
The road ahead? Tricky.
The stakes? High.
And the margin for error? Slim.
Let’s dig into where things stand and how the postseason landscape could unfold for the Packers, based on the latest models from ESPN, The Athletic, and PlayoffStatus.
A Red-Hot Run Has Green Bay in Control
After rattling off four straight wins-including three against NFC North opponents-the Packers have surged into playoff contention. All three major projection models now give Green Bay at least a 94% chance of making the postseason. That’s not quite “lock it in” territory, but it’s close.
The final stretch won’t be a cakewalk, though. Three of the Packers’ last four games are on the road, including matchups against the Broncos, Ravens, and Vikings, plus a rematch with the Bears that could have massive implications. Still, it would take a serious collapse for Green Bay to miss out entirely.
Eyes on the NFC North - and Beyond
Sunday’s win over Chicago pushed Green Bay to 4-0 in the division and gave them a half-game lead over the Bears. That divisional dominance is paying off in the playoff math. Right now, the most likely outcome across all models is the Packers winning the NFC North and locking in the No. 2 seed.
That’s a big deal. The No. 2 seed guarantees at least one home playoff game-two, if they win the first.
And with Lambeau Field in January? That’s an advantage no one wants to face.
PlayoffStatus currently gives the Packers a 39% chance of landing that No. 2 seed. The next most likely outcome?
The No. 7 seed, at 21%. That scenario assumes the Bears win their rematch in two weeks and leapfrog Green Bay for the division crown.
What Happens If They Beat the Bears Again?
That Week 16 showdown with Chicago is shaping up to be the hinge point of the Packers’ season. According to The Athletic, Green Bay has a 58% chance to host at least one playoff game as things stand now. But if they take care of business against the Bears, that number jumps to 75%, even without factoring in the other three games.
In other words: beat your rival, and the path gets a whole lot clearer.
First-Round Matchup Watch: Familiar Faces Loom
Here’s where it gets interesting. PlayoffStatus pegs the most likely first-round opponent for the Packers as-yep, you guessed it-the Bears.
There’s a 30% chance we get a Packers-Bears playoff clash in the 2-vs-7 slot. That’s the kind of matchup that would light up the football world.
The next most likely opponent? The Eagles at 15%, in a scenario where Philly wins the NFC East and Green Bay slips into a Wild Card spot. Then there’s the Lions at 11%, which would set up a third meeting between division rivals in what’s always a physical, emotional matchup.
In total, there’s a 41% chance the Packers open the playoffs against either the Bears or Lions. That’s not just a playoff game-that’s a rivalry game with everything on the line.
Projected Finish: 11-5-1 and the No. 2 Seed
According to The Athletic, the most likely finish for Green Bay is 11-5-1, which would mean two more losses down the stretch. Even with that, the Packers are still projected to hold onto the No. 2 seed.
Why? Because the Seahawks and 49ers, both ahead in the standings, share a division with the Rams, which complicates the seeding.
In this model, the Bears finish 11-6-just behind the Packers in the NFC North-and the Eagles also land at 11-6, slotting in as the No. 3 seed.
Super Bowl Odds: In the Mix, But Not the Favorite
Let’s zoom out and talk big picture. According to ESPN, the Packers have the third-best odds to reach the Super Bowl at 17%, trailing only the Rams (28%) and Broncos (22%). That’s a strong endorsement of what this team has built over the past month.
PlayoffStatus sees it a little differently, placing Green Bay behind the Rams, Broncos, Patriots, and Seahawks. They slot the Packers at 13%, tied with the Jaguars.
As for actually winning the whole thing? The Athletic gives Green Bay an 8% shot-fifth-best in the league. That’s not quite frontrunner status, but it’s enough to keep the dream alive in Titletown.
Final Word: It’s All There for the Taking
Here’s what we know: barring a total collapse, the Packers are going to the playoffs. And if they keep their foot on the gas, they’ll likely do it as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The schedule is tough, but this team has shown it can rise to the moment.
This Sunday’s matchup in Denver is no gimme. But if the Packers can handle business on the road, the playoff picture gets even brighter.
And if they beat the Bears in two weeks? That might just be the game that sets the tone for a deep postseason run.
Strap in. December football is here, and the Packers are right in the thick of it.