Packers Still Breathing in NFC Playoff Race-But the Margin for Error Is Razor Thin
The Green Bay Packers let one slip away in Week 16, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. Up 10 points with under five minutes to play against the rival Chicago Bears, Green Bay watched the lead evaporate before eventually falling 22-16 in overtime. To make matters worse, quarterback Jordan Love exited in the second quarter with a concussion-another tough blow for a team trying to claw its way into the postseason.
Now sitting at 9-5-1, the Packers are two games behind the 11-4 Bears in the NFC North standings with just two games to go. And while that division crown is still technically within reach, the path is narrow and steep.
Green Bay would need to win out-against the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings-and hope Chicago drops both of its remaining matchups, which just so happen to be against the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. Not impossible, but far from likely.
Still, there’s a silver lining-one that came courtesy of a familiar face.
Rodgers Helps Out-From Afar
Aaron Rodgers may be wearing black and gold these days, but he still found a way to lend a hand to his old team. His Pittsburgh Steelers edged out the Lions 29-24 last weekend, a result that gave Green Bay the breathing room it desperately needed. That loss dropped Detroit to 8-7, keeping the Packers in the NFC’s seventh seed and very much in the playoff mix.
With that result, both the Bears and 49ers punched their tickets to the postseason, tightening the field as we head into Week 17. Here’s how the NFC playoff picture currently stands:
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3, NFC West leader)
- Chicago Bears (11-4, NFC North leader)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, NFC East leader)
- Carolina Panthers (8-7, NFC South leader)
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4, wild card)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4, wild card)
- Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, wild card)
- Detroit Lions (8-7, in the hunt)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8, in the hunt)
Only two playoff spots remain unclaimed, and Green Bay is fighting for just one of them. The other will go to the NFC South winner-either Carolina or Tampa Bay.
That means the Packers’ fate is now tied to their own performance and what happens with the Lions. One Green Bay win or one Detroit loss over the final two weeks would be enough to clinch a postseason berth.
That’s why all eyes in Wisconsin will be on Detroit’s Christmas Day showdown with the Vikings.
Week 17 Watchlist: What Matters for Green Bay
Let’s break down the key matchups that could impact the Packers’ playoff hopes and potential seeding:
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
This is the big one. If Detroit falls to 8-8 here, the Packers can punch their playoff ticket with a win over Baltimore.
But Minnesota’s chances took a hit when J.J. McCarthy went down with a fractured throwing hand.
That means undrafted rookie Max Brosmer is back under center. His last start?
Four picks against Seattle. The Vikings still have talent, but they’ll need to rally around their young QB to pull off the upset.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
If Green Bay somehow wins the NFC North, seeding becomes the next battle. A loss by the Eagles would help the Packers potentially leapfrog them, depending on how the final two weeks shake out. So yes, Packers fans might want to cheer for Josh Allen and the Bills in this one.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
This matchup is layered. If Green Bay beats Baltimore on Saturday, the best-case scenario is a Bears loss here, which keeps the NFC North alive heading into Week 18.
But even if both teams win this week, a 49ers loss helps Green Bay in the wild-card race. If the Packers finish 11-5-1 and the Niners drop their final two to land at 11-6, Green Bay holds the edge.
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons
Same logic applies here. The Rams are also 11-4.
If they lose to Atlanta and again in Week 18 to Arizona, they’d finish 11-6. That opens the door for the Packers to leapfrog them too, assuming Green Bay wins out.
So yes, Packers fans should be pulling for the Falcons on Monday night.
What’s Still in Play for Green Bay
Here’s what we know: the No. 1 seed is off the table, and so is No. 4 (reserved for the NFC South champ). But everything else?
Still in play. The Packers could finish as high as the No. 2 seed if the right dominoes fall.
They could also back into the final wild-card spot if things break the other way.
It’s a tightrope walk from here on out. But for a team that’s dealt with injuries, inconsistency, and now a late-season quarterback scare, the fact that Green Bay is still alive this deep into December is a testament to their resilience.
So buckle up, Cheeseheads. The next week and a half is going to be a wild ride.