The Packers’ season-opening loss looked even uglier when you dig into the numbers, especially after halftime. Green Bay’s offense didn’t just sputter; it fell apart in the second half, and the full-game data reflects that collapse.
Overall, the Packers finished with negative EPA in both phases on offense, checking in at -0.07 in the pass game and -0.37 in the run game. Their passing Success Rate was 41.3%, while the running game came in at 33.3%.
The first half was the better stretch for Jordan Love and the passing attack, which posted a +0.39 EPA per play. Even then, the down-to-down efficiency wasn’t there, as the pass game Success Rate was only 36.8%.
That split tells the story of an offense that hit a few explosives without building much steady momentum.
Minnesota’s pressure package was relentless. Brian Flores had the Vikings blitzing on 73.91% of defensive snaps, which was 50.79% above the NFL average.
Their pressure rate landed at 56.52%, 17.97% above league average. Love got the ball out quickly, with an average time to pressure of 2.3 seconds and an average time to throw of 2.45 seconds.
For context, Aaron Rodgers was the fastest quarterback to throw in 2025 at 2.59 seconds. Love was quicker than that while also pushing the ball downfield, with an Average Depth of Target of 11.35 yards.
Green Bay leaned heavily into the pass in this one, finishing with a pass rate of 68.7%. That held pretty steady across halves, with a 70.4% pass rate in the first half and 67.5% in the second.
The quarter-by-quarter split was more revealing: 58.3% in the first, 80% in the second, 47.4% in the third and 85.7% in the fourth. The third quarter stands out.
After the first half, the Packers seemed to try to settle things down and lean on the run, but that didn’t change the results. In the third quarter, their offense produced -0.21 EPA per play and a 40% Success Rate.
Against that kind of blitz pressure, it’s understandable why they wanted to try something different, but the ground game never gave them any real help.
Personnel-wise, Green Bay mixed things up quite a bit. The Packers were in 11 personnel 47.8% of the time, 12 personnel 31.3% of the time, 13 personnel 14.9% of the time and “Other” 6% of the time.
Their run-concept split was fairly similar to what they used last season, with 52.3% zone and 47.7% man/power. Inside Zone only showed up four times, but it was their most efficient run by EPA at +0.06 EPA per play.
On defense, the Packers were nearly even in their base looks and nickel, spending 49.2% of snaps in each, with 1.6% in dime. They leaned heavily on zone coverage at 83.3%.
As noted, not all zone looks are simple spot-drop coverages; Gannon’s Quarters-based Match system can make zone behave a lot like man, depending on how routes develop. SumerSports’ coverage breakdown was available through its SumerBrain option, though the source did not include those specific zone categories here.
The defense also brought pressure. Green Bay finished with a 30% blitz rate and a 40% pressure rate.
For comparison, last year the Cardinals under Rich Gannon had a 25.1% blitz rate and a 32.7% pressure rate. The Packers’ pressure numbers were better than expected, and that’s something worth watching as the season goes on.
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LaFleur said afterward the team has to do a better job closing games, and the reaction around the league made clear how quickly one loss can turn into a referendum. For a fan base that has seen similar late-game issues surface before, the concern is not just the final score in Minneapolis, but whether Green Bay has already shown a familiar vulnerability at the worst possible moment. [Read more 🡒]